The American dollar extended its rally for a third consecutive week

EUR/USD

The American dollar extended its rally for a third consecutive week against the EUR, underpinned by surprisingly hawkish FOMC Minutes, suggesting the US Central Bank is ready to act as soon as next June. The EUR/USD pair ended the week a few pips above the 1.1200 figure, having been as low as 1.1179 last Thursday, and in risk of extending its slide during the upcoming days, something that will be likely defined by  quite a busy macroeconomic calendar.

On Monday, the EU will release its preliminary PMIs, although attention will likely center in the US, with PMIs, Durable Goods Orders and GDP data, alongside with many FED officers  speeches, spread all through the week that will be closely followed in search of any tip over a June rate hike. 

As for the technical picture, the EUR/USD pair has traded as low as 1.1179 last Thursday, and while it's still unable to break below the key 1.1200 figure, bounces from the lows have been quite shallow and contained by selling interest around 1.1280, the level to regain to see the downward pressure easing, at least in the short term. Currently trading around 1.1216, the pair is stuck around its 100 DMA, but the dominant trend is clearly bearish. A daily ascendant trend line coming from this year low of 1.0505 is placed this week in the 1.1050/1.1100 region, a probable bearish target should the dollar keep rallying. 

Support levels: 1.1160 1.1120 1.1080

Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1280 1.1330

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair closed the week above the 110.00 level for the first time since the BOJ's April meeting disappointment, when the Central Bank decided to maintain its economic policy on hold. Dollar's gains should have been more impressive against the yen after FOMC's hawkish stance, but the upside in the pair remained limited by the sour tone in worldwide stocks during these last few days. Over the weekend, a G7 meeting took place in Japan, but as usual, no relevant decisions have been made, and it will probably mean nothing in terms of price action at the weekly opening. The pair maintains a strong bullish tone daily basis, but it met selling interest around 110.60, a major static resistance level that the pair needs to break to be able to keep rallying. Technical readings in the daily chart support such advance, up to 112.00, where a strongly bearish 100 DMA should cap the advance. Shorter term and according to the 4 hours chart, the pair is poised to continue correcting lower, as the RSI indicator retreats from overbought readings and the Momentum indicator turned lower above its mid-line, with scope to test 109.50 in the short term, the 61.8% retracement of the latest daily slide. 

Support levels: 109.90 109.50 109.10 

Resistance levels: 110.60 111.00 111.45

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair plummeted on Friday, erasing half of its weekly gains, weighed by dollar's strength and a new Brexit poll   that showed that the "leave" vote is slightly ahead of the "remain" vote. During the upcoming week, the UK will release its preliminary Q1  GDP, expected at 0.4%. A disappointing reading should lead to further slides towards the 1.4330 region in the pair, this month low, en route to 1.4250, a major static support. Now quoting around 1.4490, the daily chart shows that this week's rally reached the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4769/1.4332 slide, and that the technical indicator have turned lower around their mid-lines, as the price hovers around a flat 20 SMA indicating an increasing bearish potential for the upcoming days. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart presents a strongly bearish Momentum, while the RSI indicator  heads south around 44 and the price stands around the 38.2% retracement of the mentioned daily decline, also in line with a bearish continuation.  

Support levels: 1.4460 1.4425 1.4380 

Resistance levels: 1.4530 1.4570 1.4610

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair closed in the red for fourth consecutive week, at 0.7223 a couple of pips above the 61.8% retracement of this year's rally. The Aussie traded generally higher amid positive local growth and in spite of Chinese woes during the first quarter of the year, but a surprisingly negative inflation during the same period which pushed the RBA to cut rates, twisted the fate of the Aussie.  Adding to the negative tone of the local currency, is the newly born weakness of commodities, with base metals hit by dollar' strength. The daily chart shows that the technical indicators have managed to correct some from oversold readings, but that remain well into negative territory, whilst the 20 SMA heads sharply lower above the current level, all of which points for a downward extension towards the 0.700 region, particularly on a break below  0.7170, this past week low. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA continues to cap the upside, heading south above the current level, whilst the technical indicators stand flat within oversold territory, lacking bearish strength, but with no signs of a possible recovery in the nearest term.

Support levels: 0.7210 0.7170 0.7130 

Resistance levels: 0.7250 0.7290 0.7330

Dow Jones

Wall Street recovered some ground on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 65 points or 0.38% to end at 17,500.94, down for a fourth consecutive week. The American index got hit by FOMC's hawkish Minutes,  but as most worldwide indexes, shrugged concerns over upcoming events and rose on the back of sharp gains in the technology and health care sectors. The DJIA closed well-off its weekly low of 17,325, but the risk remains towards the downside according to the daily chart, as the index continued developing well below a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators remain within negative territory, with no certain directional strength. Technical readings in the 4 hours chart also support some further declines ahead, given that the index stands barely above a bearish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have turned flat in neutral territory, after the oversold conditions reached after FED's announcement.  

Support levels: 17,465 17,398 17,325 

Resistance levels: 17,569 17,607 17,675

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 advanced on Friday, up by 104 points to end at 6,156.32, helped by a recovery in the mining-related sector. Anglo American gained 3.6%, followed by Royal Dutch Shell, up by 1.53$ and Glencore, which put a modest 0.4% advance. The London benchmark closed the week with gains, but the upward potential is still limited, given that in the daily chart, the index  is below the 20 and 200 SMAs, both in the 6,170/80 region, whilst the technical indicators remain within negative territory, although heading modestly higher. Buying interest has been defending the downside in the 6,084 region, with declines below the level been quickly reversed. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the Footsie is above a mild bullish 20 SMA, but the technical indicators hold below their mid-lines and with no directional strength. Given the weak tone seen late last week in commodities, the risk is toward the downside for the upcoming days, with a break below 6,040 opening doors for a steeper decline, during the upcoming days.

Support levels: 6,085 6,044 6,006 

Resistance levels: 6,178 6,225 6,279

DAX

European equities closed higher on Friday, with the German DAX gaining 1.23% or 121 points to close at 9.916.02. The index rallied, despite in Germany, producer prices fell by 3.1% in April compared to a year before, advancing 0.1% monthly basis, below the 0.2% gain expected. The German benchmark has been trading between 9,700 and 10,100 for three weeks in-a-row, with the risk mostly towards the downside, as macro data in Germany has not been as solid lately as it has been during the first quarter of the year. In the daily chart, the index is resting over a bearish 100 SMA, whilst the 20 SMA keeps gaining bearish tone above the current level. Indicators in the mentioned time frame have turned slightly higher within negative territory, indicating limited buying interest at current levels. In the 4 hours chart, the index has been consolidating above a horizontal 20 SMA, but continues developing below the 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators remain stuck around their mid-lines, with no certain directional strength. 

Support levels: 9,881 9,830 9,752 

Resistance levels: 9,923 9,991 10,048

Nikkei

The Nikkei 225 closed up 90 points on Friday at 16,736.35, supported by the continued strength in oil prices, although prospects of a US rate hike kept the upside limited. The Japanese benchmark closed the week roughly 2.0% higher, but was unable to rally beyond the 16,800 level that also contained rallies in the previous week. Yen's weakness lifted export-oriented shares, and given that the local currency could extend its decline this week, chances are of a breakout higher. In the meantime, the daily chart shows that the 100 DMA keeps containing advances, while the technical indicators have lost upward potential but remain within positive territory, limiting chances of a strong decline. In the 4 hours chart, the index has been trading in a well-defined range set earlier in the week, which left the technical picture neutral ahead of the new weekly opening, with the index barely above its moving averages and the indicators trapped around their mid-lines. 

Support levels: 16,588 16,504 16,447 

Resistance levels: 16,751 16,820 16,915 

Gold

Spot gold traded at the lower end of its weekly range on Friday, closing the day down at $1,252.48 a troy ounce. The commodity entered a selling spiral last Wednesday, on  heightened speculation that the FED will pull the trigger on a rate hike as soon as next June, plunging by nearly $20 immediately after the release of the Fed minutes. The precious metal has been trading within a descendant channel ever since topping at 1,303 for the year early May, and has tested the base of the figure last Thursday. Daily basis, the technical picture favors a continued decline, given that the price extended below a now flat 20 SMA, whist the technical indicators present modest bearish slopes within negative territory, as the price was unable to break below the weekly low of 1243.76 on Friday. In the 4 hours chart, the price develops below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA heading sharply lower and about to break below the 200 SMA after already clearing the 100 SMA on Wednesday, while the technical indicators consolidate near oversold readings, in line with the longer term outlook. 

Support levels: 1,243.80 1,235.00 1,223.90

Resistance levels: 1,258.90 1,265.40 1,274.40 

WTI Crude Oil

Crude oil prices retreated on Friday, but closed the week with gains, and not far from $50.00 a barrel, as investors book in profits ahead of the weekend. West Texas Intermediate futures closed the week at $47.65 after the Baker Hughes report showed that the number of oil rigs drilling in  the US remained unchanged from the previous week at  318. Prices rallied in spite of growing oil inventories, as hopes for increasing demand alongside with disruptions in supply, point for a soon end to the worldwide glut that dominated the market for over a year.  There seems to be growing chances of a downward corrective movement after oil flirted with the major psychological figure, and the daily chart supports so, given that the technical indicators are retreating from near overbought levels, although the downside seems well-limited by a bullish 20 SMA, currently around 45.90. In the 4 hours chart, the price is now developing below a horizontal 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have moved into negative territory, but so far remain flat, lacking enough downward momentum to suggest a strong slide ahead. 

Support levels: 47.50 46.70 46.20

Resistance levels: 48.60 49.20 50.00