Brexit jitters triggered some wild movements across the forex board

EUR/USD

Brexit jitters triggered some wild movements across the forex board, also affecting stocks. There have been four different Central Banks' economic policy meetings, and the common among them was the on-hold stance, amid uncertainty over Britain's future. The dollar was trading sharply higher against most of its major rivals due to its safe-haven condition on a risk aversion environment, when  rumors suggesting  a suspension of the Brexit referendum, after a British parliamentary was shot dead in the street, triggered a sharp reversal in sentiment, on speculation the Brexit will actually be delayed.  David Cameron actually suspended the campaign activity for next week's referendum on the country's EU membership, but there are no official news on a change in the date of the referendum.

The US release some mixed macroeconomic data at the beginning of the day, which resulted in the EUR/USD pair down to 1.1130, its lowest for the month.  The common currency trimmed almost all of its daily losses after Brexit fears receded with the shooting, on speculation this will end up favoring the "remain" campaign, as the victim was pro-EU. Cold-blooded, but market's belief anyway. From a technical point of view, is quite interesting that the pair tested and bounced back from the daily ascendant trend line  coming from November 2015 that also triggered a strong bounce once approached late May. In the 4 hours chart, the upward potential is still seen limited, given that the technical indicators have bounced sharply from oversold territory, but are not yet confirming and extension beyond their mid-lines, whilst the latest recovery stalled right below a bearish 20 SMA. The pair needs to settle above the 1.1245 to attempt a retest of the 1.1290/1.1300 region, and it will take a recovery beyond this last, to confirm a bullish continuation for this Friday.

Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1295 1.1340

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen soared against all of its major rivals after the Bank of Japan decided to remain pat on economic policy, amid ongoing market's turmoil surrounding the upcoming Brexit referendum. BOJ's Governor Kuroda showed no concerns over low inflation and economic developments, but a couple of officials from the Ministry of Finance run to the wires to express concerns over one-sided movements as the USD/JPY pair plummeted to 103.54, its lowest since August 2014. In spite of easing risk sentiment and recovering stocks during the American afternoon, the pair was unable to recover ground, contained by selling interest around the 104.60 level, the immediate resistance. Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the pair entered in a consolidative stage, but also that the risk remains towards the downside, as the technical indicators have lost upward strength after erasing extreme oversold readings, while the 100 SMA has crossed below the 200 SMA far above the current level. The immediate support comes at 103.90, with a break below it favoring a retest of the daily low, and even an extension towards the 103.00 region.

Support levels: 103.90 103.55 103.20

Resistance levels: 104.60 105.00 105.50

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair fell down to 1.4012, before recovering beyond the 1.4200 figure late in the American afternoon. The Pound accelerated its decline after the Bank of England decided to keep its economic policy on-hold, and in spite of solid Retail Sales figures for May. According to an initial estimate, retail sales in the UK increased by 6.0% compared to a year before, while registering a 0.9% increase compared to the previous month. As for BOE's Minutes, were pretty much a repetition of the last couple of BoE meetings ,as the Central Bank is waiting for the referendum to pass. The killing of Jo Cox, a British member of the Parliament spurred speculation that those undecided will turn towards the "remain"  as the killer was said to scream "Britain first" before shooting. It may be true or not, but the rumors are already out, and the market reacts in consequence. Nevertheless, this is by no means the end of turmoil around the Pound. The pair holds near a fresh 3-day high of 14253, and the technical bias is bullish, according to the 4 hours chart, as the technical indicators head north above their mid-lines, whilst the price is now above a mild bearish 20 SMA. Still, wild swings are still expected, and extreme caution is recommended when trading Pound crosses.

Support levels: 1.4185 1.4150 1.4110

Resistance levels: 1.4250 1.4290 1.4330

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar surged to 0.7442 against the greenback at the beginning of the day, after the Melbourne Institute reported that Consumer inflationary expectations rose to 3.5% in June from 3.2% in May,  but changed course on a mixed employment report for the month of May. Job's creation rose by 17.9K, but almost all with part-time jobs, as full-time employment came in flat. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.7% as well as the participation rate, unchanged at 64.8. For the rest of the  day, the AUD/USD pair tracked stocks  for direction, falling down to 0.7285 before bouncing up to current 0.7360 region. The 4 hours chart shows that the price is unable to establish above a flat 200 EMA and a bearish 20 SMA, both a few pips above the current price, whilst the technical indicators have turned modestly lower around their mid-lines, with no certain directional momentum at the time being. Given the flip in market's sentiment, Asian equities may recover some ground during the upcoming hours, favoring a recovery in the AUD/USD pair up to the 0.7450 level, the 38.2% retracement of this year's rally.

Support levels: 0.7330 0.7285 0.7240

Resistance levels: 0.740 0.7450 0.7490

Dow Jones

Wall Street snapped a five-day losing streak, with US stocks edging higher after a falling sharply to fresh June lows at the beginning of the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 92 points to end at 17,733.10, whilst the Nasdaq added roughly 10 points, to close at 4,844.92. The S&P added 6 points or 0.31% to close at 2,077.99. Stocks bounced sharply from their daily lows after UK PM David Cameron stated that  all campaigning around the E.U. referendum has been suspended, after the shooting of Jo Cox, a Labour Member of Parliament. As for the technical picture, the DJIA daily chart shows that the index fell briefly below its 100 DMA for the first time since early March before recovering, still holding below the 20 DMA around 17,833. In the same chart, the technical indicators have turned higher and stand right below their mid-lines, still not enough to confirm an upward continuation. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators head sharply higher above their mid-lines, whilst the index is currently above a bearish 20 SMA but below the 100 and 200 SMAs, favoring the upside, but still needing some additional technical confirmations.

Support levels: 17,713 17,626 17,559

Resistance levels: 17,750 17,833 17,901

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 ended modestly lower at 5,950.48, down by 16 points or 0.27%, in line with market's negative mood, as investors run away from high yielders. The decline was led by the banking sector, with Barclays down 1.5% and Royal Bank of Scotland losing 1.29%. Commodity-related equities however, moderate the decline, with Randgold up by 4.77% and Fresnillo by 1.73% on the back of gold's early rally. In the daily chart, the recovery has helped the technical indicators to recover partially from oversold territory, but remain within bearish territory, whilst the index is well below its moving averages, indicating that the risk remains towards the downside. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the 20 SMA maintains a strong bearish slope above the current level around 6,002, the immediate resistance, whilst the technical indicators have recovered from oversold levels, but have turned flat below their mid-lines, in line with the longer term outlook.

Support levels: 5,949 5,905 5,868

Resistance levels: 6,002 6,029 6,081

DAX

European equities edged lower with the German DAX down by 55 points to close the day at 9,550.47, a two-month low. The decline was led by financial services and banking-related equities, as local yields tumbled to record lows below zero, after FED's dovish announcement.  German 10-year bond yields hit a new record low of -0.034%, as concerns over a possible Brexit fueled the run to safety during European trading hours. The index recovered in futures trading, and stands now at 9,654, still down on the week. Technically, the daily chart shows that the technical indicators are turning modestly higher from near oversold territory, but are still far from suggesting a steeper recovery. The 100 DMA in the mentioned time frame stands at 9,817, a strong resistance and a probable bullish target in the case of further advances. In the short term, the 4 hours chart the index is now struggling to overcome a strongly bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have pared their advances below their mid-lines, but overall suggesting that the ongoing recovery may extend further.

Support levels: 9,593 9,508 9,426

Resistance levels: 9,666 9,740 9,817

Nikkei

The Nikkei 225 closed the day at 15,434.14, down by 470 points,  as the Japanese yen soared following BOJ's decision to keep its economic policy unchanged. Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, repeated that  more time is needed for the effect of negative rates to show up in the real economy, adding that they won't hesitate to take additional easing measures if needed. The index extended its decline down to a 4-month low of 15,271 after the close, as Wall Street initially sunk before closing in the green. The benchmark is now poised to start the day around 15,600, and while technical readings maintain their negative stance, the index may recover further during this last session of the week. In the meantime, the daily chart shows that the technical indicators keep heading south below their mid-lines, whilst the 20 and 100 DMAs converge around 16,535, to far away to be relevant at this point. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA maintains a strong bearish slope, currently around 15,766, whilst the technical indicators have turned flat within negative territory, after correcting oversold readings.

Support levels: 15,501 15,422 15,340

Resistance levels: 15,676 15,766 15,834

Gold

After rising to an almost two-year high, of $1.315,54, spot gold plummeted over $35.00 in a matter of hours, down to current 1,280.00 region. The commodity pulled back dramatically as risk sentiment suffered an u-turn on rumors that the UK referendum could be delayed. Gold trimmed almost all of its weekly gains due to its safe-haven condition, as the dollar also suffered from this sudden change in market's sentiment. Technically, the daily chart shows the price shows that the technical indicators have turned lower from overbought levels, whilst the price is still far above its 20 and 100 DMAs, in the 1,245/50.00 region. In the 4 hours chart the bearish potential is strong given that the price has broken below its 20 SMA, for the first time in two weeks, whilst the technical indicators present bearish slopes after crossing below their mid-lines, suggesting the decline may extend further on a break below 1,272.43, this week low.

Support levels: 1,272.40 1,263.80 1,252.15

Resistance levels: 1,289.80 1,296.85 1,303.65

WTI Crude Oil

Crude oil prices fell to fresh 5-week lows in the American afternoon, with US WTI futures down to $45.89 a barrel before bouncing to close the day a few cents above the 46.00 level, posting the largest one-day loss since April. Oil is down for a sixth day in-a-row, with no certain catalyst behind this intraday decline, but market turmoil. Is true, US stockpiles decreased by less-than-expected, whilst production seems to be rising again, fueling concerns over the possibility of returning to an oversupplied market. From a technical point of view, the black gold is biased lower, as in the daily chart, the Momentum indicator keeps heading lower below its mid-line, whilst the RSI indicator has accelerated its decline, and stands now around 37. In the same time frame, the 20 SMA is slowly turning south above the current level, acting as a strong resistance now around 48.90. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have lost downward strength, but stand well into negative territory, whilst the 20 SMA has crossed below the 100 and 200 SMAs above the current level, in line with a downward continuation towards the critical 45.00 region.

Support levels: 45.80 45.00 44.60

Resistance levels: 46.90 47.70 48.50