The countdown towards the future of the UK within the EU has begun

EUR/USD

The countdown towards the future of the UK within the EU has begun this Wednesday, with major pairs confined to their early week's ranges, but trading choppily, as uncertainty reached unseen highs following the release of some new Brexit polls, showing a modest advantage of the "leave" side. The dollar edged lower, equities closed mixed but not far from their daily opening levels, with markets now in pause. 

Data coming from the US was quite encouraging, as  existing home sales grew 1.8% in May, the strongest pace in over nine years,  up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.53 million from a downwardly revised 5.43 million in April. The Eurozone consumer confidence in June declined to -7.3, worse than the expected -7.1 and the previous -7.0.

The EUR/USD pair surged up to 1.1337, but remains neutral, trading around the 1.1300 figure and with the 4 hours chart showing that the price is hovering around a slightly bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have turned modestly higher, but remain within neutral territory. The pair is not expected to do much this Thursday, as the final results of the referendum will be out next Friday around 4:00 GMT, although a break below 1.1220 or above 1.1360, could see some wide directional move amid stops getting triggered. 

Support levels: 1.1245 1.1210 1.1160

Resistance levels: 1.1330 1.1365 1.1400

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair traded in a tight 50 pips range this Wednesday, as uncertainty over the outcome of the upcoming Brexit poll, kept speculative interest away from the safe-haven currency. The Japanese yen has been in a clear bullish trend ever since the month started, as BOJ's inaction added to a risk-averse environment. The improvement in market's sentiment seen last week was just enough to halt the yen's rally, but the downward risk persists, given that the pair was unable to regain the 105.00 level. The range will likely persist this Thursday, but technical readings keep favoring the downside, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is hovering around its 100 SMA, unable to rally beyond it, whilst the technical indicators head slightly lower within neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators also lack directional strength and hold around their mid-lines, whilst the 100 SMA extended its decline above the current level, now offering a strong dynamic resistance around 106.50.

Support levels: 104.25 103.90 103.55 

Resistance levels: 104.85 105.40 105.80

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair jumped to 1.4177 at the beginning of the US session, but returned to the 1.4660 region after the release of new polls, showing that the intention to vote  "leave" is modestly ahead of the "remain" side. These results are far from being a game changer, as the numbers are not far away from those released over the past few days, with results pretty much even. In fact, the retracement seems more due to profit taking as the intraday spike was unable to advance beyond the weekly high, than due to a change in market's mood. Despite the large intraday moves, the Pound is closing flat for a second consecutive day against its American rival, frozen before the implosion.  The pair has recovered sharply from the 1.4000 level tested last week, which means that beyond the initial reaction, the upside may be limited on a Bremain victory, possibly by the 1.5000 psychological figure. As for the short term technical picture, the 4 hours chart shows that the Momentum indicator keeps heading lower within positive territory, whilst the 20 SMA offers an immediate support around 1.4620, with its strong bullish slope, all of which suggesting that a break below it may see a deeper downward corrective move, down to 1.4550. 

Support levels: 1.4620 1.4590 1.4550

Resistance levels: 1.4710 1.4745 1.4790

AUD/USD

The Aussie advanced up to 0.7526, a fresh 2-month high against the greenback, underpinned by an early recovery in commodities' prices. Data coming from Australia during the past Asian session, showed that the Westpac leading index improved in May, but remains below trend's growth, printing 0.21% from previous -0.20%. The AUD/USD pair retreated during the American afternoon as oil prices plummeted to a fresh weekly low, but held around the 0.7500 level, overall maintaining its bullish trend. Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the indicators have lost upward momentum, but remain within positive territory, whilst the 20 SMA extended its advance above 0.7450, a major Fibonacci support, the 38.2% retracement of this year's rally. Despite the lack of upward strength, the upside remains favored, although a break above 0.7540 a strong static resistance, is required to confirm additional gains up to the 0.7600 price zone. 

Support levels: 0.7450 0.7410 0.7375

Resistance levels: 0.7540 0.7580 0.7610

Dow Jones

US stocks closed in the red, turning lower after a positive start amid increasing uncertainty ahead of the UK vote on its EU membership, which has become a close call. On the last day before the poll, the "leave" camp is gaining ground according to Opinium and TNS polls released during the American afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 48points, or 0.27%, to finish at 17,780.83. The S&P 500 Index declined 3 points to close at 2,085.45, whilst the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 10points or 0.22%, to 4,833.32. The Dow daily chart shows that the index has turned modestly lower, as it closed the day below its 20 SMA whilst the technical indicators turned south right below their mid-lines, lacking downward momentum and therefore far from confirming an upcoming slide. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart presents a firmer bearish tone, given that the technical indicators head sharply south below their mid-lines, whist the index is now developing below its 20 SMA. 

Support levels: 17,796 17,730 17,663

Resistance levels: 17,880 17,945 17,987 

FTSE 100

The Footsie advanced for a fourth consecutive day, up by 34 points or 0.56% to end the day at 6,261.19, underpinned by a continued advance in financial-related stocks. Stockbroker Hargreaves Lansdown rose 4%, the financial firm Old Mutual, gained 3%, whilst pensions provider Standard Life and wealth manager St James's Place, also ended up with strong gains. The decline in oil prices, put the energy-related sector under pressure, with Royal Dutch Shell closing the day 0.1% lower. The index advanced intraday up to 6,319, not far from its May high of 6,324, but retreated ahead of the close, mostly on profit taking. In the daily chart, the index remains well above its moving averages that anyway lack directional strength, whilst the technical indicators have lost their bullish strength, now consolidating around their mid-lines. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the technical indicators are retreating from overbought levels, but also that the benchmark is well above its moving averages, all of which maintains the downward risk limited. 

Support levels: 6,222 6,184 6,123 

Resistance levels: 6,330 6,388 6,440

DAX

European indexes closed modestly higher, with the German DAX up by 55 points, to close the day at 10,071. The daily winner was Infineon Technologies, up by 3.25%, whilst Deutsche Bank advanced 1.89%, as the banking sector outperformed across the region. Volumes were extremely low and will likely shrink further ahead of the outcome of the UK poll, which will define shares' trend for the upcoming weeks. In the meantime, the daily chart for the DAX shows that the index has posted yet another higher high, but failed to hold gains above the 200 DMA, whilst the technical indicators turned modestly lower after failing to overcome their mid-lines, these last, limiting chances of a stronger advance for this Thursday. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are retreating from overbought territory, whilst the index holds well above a bullish 20 SMA, currently around 9,854.  

Support levels: 10,010 9,952 9,893 

Resistance levels: 10,117 10,190 10,270

Nikkei

The Nikkei 225 edged modestly lower this Wednesday, down by 0.64% or 102 points, closing at 16,065.72, as investors booked profits ahead of the UK referendum and after a three-day rally. The Japanese benchmark extended its decline further in after hours trading, tracking Wall Street's decline, also on the back of Japanese yen's recovery. Export-oriented equities remain in the spotlight due to the currency's strength, with the sector leading the decline. Technically, and according to the daily chart, the risk has turned towards the downside, as indicators have lost their upward strength and are now heading south within negative territory, whilst the 20 DMA has accelerated its decline below the 100 DMA, both above the current level. In the 4 hours chart,  the index is currently developing around a bullish 20 SMA, the Momentum indicator has bounced modestly from its 100 level, whilst the RSI maintains its bearish slope around 49, not enough to suggest a certain upcoming move. 

Support levels: 15,931 15,850 15,780

Resistance levels: 16,040 16,120 16,210

Gold

Spot gold extended its weekly decline, although losses were moderated this Wednesday, as liquidity diminished dramatically ahead of the critical UK event. Spot closed the day around $1,264.20 a troy ounce, not far from the fresh 2-week low set at 1,261.14. The commodity  established a yearly high last week around 1,315.00 after the US Federal Reserve decided to maintain its economic policy on-hold, whilst presenting quite a dovish stance towards future rate hikes, also supported by a strong risk-averse environment ahead of the UK referendum. This last suffered a sudden change late last week when polls began to show that the "remain" side was taking the lead, although fears resumed as the date looms. The daily chart shows an increasing bearish potential, as the price is struggling around a bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head lower, right above their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the metal is biased lower, as the price has extended below a now bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head sharply lower within negative territory, supporting further declines for this Thursday. 

Support levels: 1,261.10 1,250.40 1,242.50

Resistance levels: 1,269.90 1,278.80 1,290.70 

WTI Crude Oil

Crude oil prices edged lower this Wednesday with WTI futures ending the day a few cents above $49.00 a barrel, trimming all of its weekly gains. The commodity advanced up to 50.52 during Asian trading hours, but has been steadily declining ever since, accelerating its slide after the EIA report showed that US stockpiles decreased by less-than-expected in the week ended June 17th. Down by 900,000 barrels, the market was expecting a 1.67 million draw-down, resulting in US crude falling down to an intraday low of 48.39, from where it later bounced. Daily basis, the black gold continues in consolidative mode, as the price keeps hovering around a horizontal 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have turned modestly lower within neutral territory. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the price is currently developing below its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head lower below their mid-lines, pointing for some further slides ahead.  

Support levels: 48.40 47.60 46.90

Resistance levels: 49.60 50.20 50.80