The EUR/USD pair ends Thursday at its highest level since the Brexit slump

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair ends Thursday at its highest level since the Brexit slump, back on June 24th, as dollar's sell-off resumed. Despite US FOMC Minutes left doors open for a rate hike, the mixed stance among policy makers suggests the Central Bank will pass from making  a decision in September, and that they are in no rush to pull the trigger. The pair traded as high as 1.1356, paring gains due to tepid European inflation, as in the region, the Consumer Price Index plunged by 0.6% in July, below the already pessimistic 0.5% decline expected. The annual rate was of 0.2% in the same month, up from 0.1% in June. 

In the US, weekly unemployment claims came in at 262K for the week ending August 12th, better than the 265K expected, while the  4-week average came in at 265,250, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 262,750. Also, the Philadelphia FED manufacturing survey resulted at 2.0, as expected. Beyond German PPI, there are no major reports scheduled for this Friday, which means that the greenback has little chances of recovering ground. 

From a technical point of view, the pair is poised to extend its advance on dollar's weakness, although the rally can be limited by the lack of EUR´s demand. In the 4 hours chart, the RSI indicator heads north around 79, while the Momentum indicator diverges from price action, heading lower as price reaches fresh highs. The 20 SMA in the mentioned time frame, heads sharply  higher below  the current level, supporting a continued advance towards the 1.1460 price zone, a major long term static resistance. 

Support levels: 1.1300 1.1265 1.1230 

Resistance levels: 1.1360 1.1400 1.1460

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair closes Thursday a few pips below the 100.00 critical psychological level, despite some verbal intervention coming from Japan, as  Vice Finance Minister of International Affairs, Masatsugu Asakawa, said that  they will respond to speculative market moves as needed, while  an adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that the Bank of Japan will likely take bold easing measures next month. Still, there is little that the BOJ can do against the ongoing trend, and surprise action, if it actually happens, will likely have short lived effects in JPY crosses. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the 100 SMA extended its decline, now heading south below 100.65, a major Fibonacci resistance, whilst the technical indicators head south within bearish territory, supporting a continued decline for this Friday. In the 4 hour chart, the Momentum indicator turned flat around its mid-line, while the RSI indicator is already retreating from its 50 level, and the price develops well below its moving averages, also supporting a bearish extension for the upcoming sessions. 

Support levels: 99.90 99.55 99.10

Resistance levels: 100.20 100.65 101.00 

GBP/USD

Following great employment data and higher inflation readings, the UK released this Thursday upbeat Retail Sales figures for July, further fuelling Pound's rally. Retail sales rose, excluding fuel, rose by 1.5% monthly basis, pushing the annual rate of growth up to 5.4% from the previous 3.9%. A cheaper GBP indeed helped sales' gains, with the monthly headline printing 1.4% against previous -0.9%. The GBP/USD pair reached a daily high of 1.3171, having consolidate around the level for most of the last American session, with retracements down to 1.3126 being quickly reverted. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators look upwardly exhausted within overbought territory, but given that the price remains near its daily high and well above a bullish 20 SMA, the risk remains towards the upside. A strong dynamic resistance is located at 1.3230, the 200 EMA in the mentioned time frame, with a break above it opening doors for an upward continuation up to 1.3320, the 23.6% retracement of the post-Brexit slump. 

Support levels: 1.3125 1.3090 1.3050 

Resistance levels: 1.3185 1.3230 1.3275

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair surged at the beginning of the day, underpinned by a solid Australian jobs report. Unemployment in the country fell to 5.7% against 5.8% median forecast in July, while the participation rate remained stable at 64.9%,  whilst the economy added 26,200 new jobs in July, against a 11K advance expected. The pair returned above the 0.7700 level, but was unable to hold on to gains, falling down to 0.7660 early US session. The pair then grinded back higher, but remains below the key level, with a moderate upward scope in the short term, given that in the  hour chart, the rice is above its 20 SMA whilst the technical indicators head modestly higher around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the  pair presents a neutral stance, with the Momentum indicators heading higher right above its 100 level, but the RSI holding flat around its mid-line. In this last time frame, the 20 SMA is horizontal, reflecting the lack of directional strength going on ever since the week started. 

Support levels: 0.7660 0.7635 0.7600 

Resistance levels: 0.7720 0.7755 0.7800

Dow Jones

Wall Street closed the day marginally higher, with the DJIA adding 23 points to close at 18,597.70, the S&P adding 0.22% to end at 2,187.02 and the Nasdaq Composite closing at 5,240.15, up by 11 points. Among the Dow Jones, oil-related shares were among the biggest winners, with Chevron up 1.30% and Exxon Mobil by 0.91%. Stocks were also supported by speculation that the Federal Reserve is in no rush to raise rates.  From a technical point of view, the daily chart of the DJIA shows that the benchmark held above the 23.6% retracement of its latest bullish run, despite an intraday slide below it, whilst holding above a still flat 20 SMA. In the same chart, technical indicators have turned modestly higher within positive territory, maintaining the risk towards the upside. Shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the technical stance is neutral as indicators hold around their mid-lines, whilst the benchmark has been moving back and forth around a flat 20 SMA. 

Support levels: 18,532 18,491 18,455

Resistance levels: 18,603 18,640 18,675

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 closed the day pretty much flat at 6,868.96, up roughly by 10 points this Thursday. Mining-related equities recovered from previous losses, with Antofagasta leading the advance, up by 5.25%,and BHP Billiton adding 2.77%, underpinned by further oil gains. The modest advance was not enough to take the benchmark out of its recent range, and the daily chart presents a moderate downward potential, given that the RSI indicator continues retreating from overbought territory. Still, and in the mentioned time frame, the index is well above its moving averages, whilst the Momentum indicator remains flat above its 100 level, indicating that the market is not yet ready to sell. In the 4 hours chart, the Footsie is developing below a horizontal 20 SMA, currently at 6,904, while technical indicators hover below their mid-lines, with no certain directional strength. 

Support levels: 6,860 6,831 6,782 

Resistance levels: 6,920 6,960 7,000 

DAX

The German DAX closed the day at 10,603.03, up by 0.62%, helped by a recovery in commodities' prices. Financial and industrial-related equities were among the winners, whilst Volkswagen was  the bigger loser, down 1.46%. There were no major drivers for European equities, with most local indexes edging higher. Technically, the daily chart shows that the index holds above a bullish 20 DMA, now around 10,430, whilst the technical indicators have partially lost their downward potential within positive territory, suggesting that the latest decline has been mostly corrective, and that the risk of further slides is still limited. In the 4 hours chart, however, the benchmark is developing below its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head nowhere, right below their mid-lines. The weekly low has been set at 10,514, being the level to break to confirm a bearish continuation for this last trading day of the week.

Support levels: 10,557 10,514 10,450

Resistance levels: 10,647 10,697 10,744 

Nikkei

The Nikkei 225 plummeted to its lowest in two weeks, down by 1.55% or 255 points to close the day at 16,486.01, on continued yen strength after FOMC Minutes showed that the timing of the next rate hike is still unclear. Exporters suffered the most with the local currency's strength, with Nissan Motor Co down by 2.56% and Toyota shedding 1.76%. The benchmark advanced modestly in after hours trading as European and American indexes closed generally higher, but with the USD/JPY pair ending the day below 100.00, the risk is towards the downside for this Friday. Technically, the daily chart shows that the benchmark is hovering around a horizontal 20 DMA, while the RSI indicator heads lower around 51, indicating that the index may extend its decline further, with the 100 DMA offering support around 16,367. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have turned modestly higher within bullish territory, but the index is below a strongly bearish 20 SMA, now at 16,603.

Support levels: 16,492 16,442 16,365 

Resistance levels: 16,603 16,647 16,705

Gold

Spot gold closed the day marginally higher at $1,352.80 a troy ounce with al base metal recovering ground this Thursday. Gains however, were moderated, with gold holding within its early week range, as there was no major event this Friday, while it already absorbed FED's latest announcement late Thursday. The daily chart maintains a neutral-to-bullish stance, with the Momentum indicator heading modestly lower around 100, but the RSI indicator heading north around 57 and the 20 SMA heading modestly higher a couple of dollars below the current level. All in one, gold holds on pretty well to its latest gains, and seems unlikely it could fall below 1,300 now. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the price is above its moving averages that slowly gain upward potential, whilst the technical indicators bounced from their mid-lines, supporting some additional gains for this Friday on a break above 1358.03, this week high and the immediate resistance. 

Support levels: 1,333.50 1,320.251,310.80

Resistance levels: 1,358.05 1,367.20 1,375.20

WTI Crude Oil

Crude oil prices extended to fresh 1-month highs, with WTI futures reaching $48.37 a barrel in the American afternoon, settling afterwards a handful of cents below the level.  Crude continued rallying on speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other key exporters will probably revive talks on freezing output levels when they meet in Algeria next September. Decreasing US stockpiles added to the bullish case of the commodity that has already gained over 20% this month. Ahead of Asian opening, technical readings in the daily chart present a strong upward momentum, as the technical indicators head sharply higher within overbought level, whilst the price extended further above its 100 DMA. In the 4 hours chart, indicators have turned flat within overbought territory, with the RSI around 80, and the 20 SMA heading north around 46.50, but readings are mostly reflecting the lack of volume by the end of the day than suggesting that the upward potential is exhausted. 

Support levels: 47.70 47.25 46.50 

Resistance levels: 48.40 49.20 50.00