The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.0915, a stone's throw away from the post-Brexit low of 1.0910

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.0915, a stone's throw away from the post-Brexit low of 1.0910, after the ECB's economic policy meeting. The Central Bank left rates and its monthly QE purchases of €80bn unchanged, while President Mario Draghi emphasized that they will continue with extraordinary policy accommodation as long as needed, and reiterated that  "there are no signs yet of a convincing upward trend in underlying inflation."  During the Q&A session, the pair jumped to its highest for the week at 1.1038, as Draghi said that they didn't discuss a QE extension, but a few minutes later, he added that they didn't discuss tapering either, putting a halt to the early rally and resulting in the pair falling back. Draghi delayed any decision for December, when the Central Bank will have more data to make more accurate decisions. 

Data coming from the US was generally positive, with seasonally adjusted initial claims up to 260K  in the week ending October 15th, from a revised 247K. The 4-week moving average was 251,750, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The Philadelphia FED Manufacturing survey for October, print 9.7, below previous 12.8 but above market's expectations of 5.3, while existing home sales surprised to the upside in September, up by 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.47 million.

The pair bounced modestly from the mentioned low, but so far has been unable to recover above 1.0950, July's low and the immediate short term resistance, still looking quite vulnerable according to intraday technical readings and pointing to test the base of the wide long term range between 1.0840 and 1.1460. Seems unlikely the pair could break below the 1.0800/40 region without a major catalyst, but is possible that the region will be tested during the upcoming days. Technical readings in the 4 hours chart maintain the risk towards the downside, as the price was unable to settle above a still bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators have barely bounced from oversold readings, without real strength. 

Support levels: 1.0910 1.0870 1.0840    

Resistance levels: 1.0950 1.1010 1.1055 

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair recovered some ground this Thursday, extending its intraday recovery up to 104.10, but settling a few pips below the key 104.00 level. The greenback surged against its Japanese rival after the release of better-than-expected US housing figures, which came in as a surprise after latest disappointing results in the sector. BOJ Kuroda is due to speak during the upcoming  Asian session at the Japan Summit hosted by The Economist, in Tokyo. The BOJ will have its economic policy meeting next November 1st, and investors will be likely looking for clues on what the Central Bank is planning to do then, although seems unlikely that Kuroda will offer some clear clues today. From a technical point of view, the pair has completed a pullback to the daily ascendant trend line broken earlier this week, and holds around it, not yet confirming whether it will recover above it and resume its gains, or retreat in look of fresh lows. According to the 4 hours chart technical readings, the pair may gain some further ground, given that technical indicators head modestly higher around their mid-lines, whilst the 100 SMA maintains a strong upward slope below the current level, providing a strong support around the 103.15. 

Support levels: 103.60 103.15 102.70

Resistance levels: 104.20 104.60 105.05

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair closed the day modestly lower, still in retreat mode after failing to surpass a major static resistance area around 1.2330. The Pound was hit at the beginning of the London session by disappointing September Retail Sales numbers, as there was no change monthly basis, with the amount of goods bought flat compared to August. Sales increased by 4.1% when compared to September 2015, below the expected 4.8%. Demand in the EUR/GBP pair as an initial reaction to ECB's statement, sent the GBP/USD pair down to 1.2209 daily basis, from where it bounced back in the American afternoon to current 1.2260 region. Overall, the risk tilts towards the downside, particularly if the pair is unable to quickly regain the 1.2300 figure. Technical readings in the 4 hours chart present a neutral-to-bearish stance, as the Momentum indicator is crossing its mid-line towards the downside with a strong downward slope, while the RSI indicator consolidates around 48 and the price battles with its 20 SMA. Renewed selling interest below the mentioned daily low should see the pair extending its decline down to the 1.2100 region this Friday. 

Support levels: 1.2210 1.2180 1.2130 

Resistance levels: 1.2290 1.2330 1.2375 

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair gave back all of its last two days' gains, pulling back from a daily high of 0.7734 achieved at the beginning of the day. The Aussie was hit by worse-than-expected September employment figures, with full-employment dropping by 53,000 and part-time jobs up by 43,200. The total employment fell by 9,800 against expectations of a 15,200 increase, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.6%. Adding pressure over the antipodean currency was a decline in commodities' prices, with both, gold and oil shedding ground. The pair accelerated its decline during the US afternoon, following better-than-expected US housing figures, ending the day not far from a daily low of 0.7624, and looking poised to extend its slide, technically speaking. The pair has failed multiple times over the past few months to extend gains beyond the 0.7700 figure, and ended up retracing towards the 0.7450/0.7530 region afterwards, something that will become more likely with a weekly close below 0.7600. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators maintain their bearish slopes well below their mid-lines, whilst the price is now far below its 20 SMA, supporting the bearish case for this Friday. 

Support levels: 0.7680 0.7640 0.7600 

Resistance levels: 0.7730 0.7770 0.7810

Dow Jones

US index closed with moderated losses on Thursday, undermined by a decline in oil prices and  a stronger dollar. The Dow Jones Industrial Average close 0.22% lower at 18,162.35, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.09%, to 5,241.83. The S&P shed 3 points, ending the day at 2,141.34. Earnings reports continued dominating the scene, American Express reporting stronger-than-expected earnings that pushed the share 9.03% higher. Among the  Dow, telecommunication shares were the worst performers, with Verizon Communications down 2.5% after its revenue fell short of estimates. The DJIA continued trading within familiar ranges, and the daily chart maintains the neutral stance seen on previous updates, as technical indicators in the mentioned time frame continue hovering directionless around their mid-lines, while the index is around its 20 SMA. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators also hold flat around their mid-lines, whilst the index moves within its moving averages.

Support levels: 18,152 18,095 18,040

Resistance levels: 18,213 18,264 18,310

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 closed the day at 7,026.90 roughly 5 points up daily basis, helped by an advance in banking-related equities. Royal Bank of Scotland was the top performer, up 3.50%, followed by Barclays that added 3.21% and Standard Chartered which closed 2.03% higher. Pound's latest stability, however, has kept the London benchmark within a tight range for most of this week. Technically, the daily chart shows that the benchmark closed up for a third consecutive day, but it holds below last Friday's high of 7,062. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame have lost directional strength, but hold within positive territory, while the index holds a few points above its 20 DMA. Technical readings in the shorter term present a neutral tone, as in the 4 hours chart, the index is barely holding above a horizontal 20 SMA, while technical indicators have turned modestly lower within positive territory, lacking directional strength. 

Support levels: 7,010 6,962 6,934

Resistance levels: 7,062 7,129  7,160

DAX

European equities were trading higher ahead of the ECB's announcement, closing the day mixed after the Central Bank maintained the status-quo and failed to provide clues on upcoming moves. The German DAX managed to add 55 points or 0.52% to close the day at 10,701.39, with Deutsche Bank leading advances, closing the day 4.56% higher. Commerzbank also ended at the top of the list, up by 2.28%, while auto makers also outperformed, with Volkswagen up 1.41%. The index stands at its highest in over a month, and the technical outlook is bullish according to the daily chart, as it surged well above its 20 SMA, currently at 10,543, while technical indicators have accelerated their advances within bullish territory. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the technical outlook is also positive, as technical indicators have entered in a consolidative phase near overbought readings, whilst the 20 SMA maintains its bullish slope well below the current level. 

Support levels: 10,668 10,607 10,549 

Resistance levels: 10,750 10,805 10,860

Nikkei

Asian share markets closed firmly higher, backed by strong US corporate earnings and rising oil prices in the previous session, with the Japanese Nikkei closing the day up 1.39% at 17,235.50, its highest settlement since last April. The rally accelerated after the benchmark recovered the 17,000 threshold, with energy-related shares ending the day with solid gains. Despite US indexes closed slightly lower, the index stands around 17,260 ahead of Friday's opening, bullish, according to technical readings. In the daily chart, the benchmark accelerated well above its moving averages, whilst the RSI indicator heads north around 64, and the Momentum indicator also extended its advance within positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators retreated partially within overbought territory, but the pullback from the intraday high of 17,282 has been quite modest, while the 20 SMA maintains a sharp upward slope below the current level, suggesting that the index may advance further in this last day of the week. 

Support levels: 17,187 17,110 17,062

Resistance levels: 17,282 17,345 17,398 

Gold

Gold gave back some of its weekly gains this Friday,  with spot retreating from a 2-week high of $1,274.46 a troy ounce, as the dollar firmed up following the ECB's economic policy announcement, with the dollar index extending up to a 7-month high after better-than-expected US housing data. The commodity treads water around the 1,266.30 level, the 6.8% retracement of the May/July bullish run, and the daily chart shows that it pared gains after meeting selling interest around a sharply bearish 20 SMA, while in the same time frame, the Momentum indicator maintains a bullish slope, right below its 100 level but the RSI indicator resumed its slide after correcting oversold readings, all of which supports some further slides. In the 4 hours chart, the price is now a few cents above a still bullish 20 SMA, but retreated from a bearish 100 SMA, while technical indicators have lost directional strength around neutral territory. The daily low was set at 1,264.75, and a bearish acceleration below it will likely result in a downward extension this Friday, towards the 1,245/6 region. 

Support levels: 1,264.75  1,256.25 1,245.30 

Resistance levels: 1,277.05 1,283.90 1,295.30

WTI Crude Oil

Crude oil prices reversed its previous gains, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices settling 2.2% lower at $50.50 a barrel, weighed by broad dollar's strength, which triggered some profit taking. The decline came in spite of another positive US report for the oil market, as the energy monitoring firm, Genscape reported a drop of nearly 1.25 million barrels in crude stockpiles the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub for WTI futures for the week to Oct. 18. WTI's daily chart shows that the Momentum indicator extended its decline towards its mid-line, while the RSI indicator retreated sharply from overbought levels, but both hold within positive territory. In the same chart, the 20 DMA maintains a sharp bullish slope, today around 49.75, the level to break to confirm further slides. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart presents a neutral-to-bearish stance, given that technical indicators have bounced modestly within neutral territory, whilst the price settled below a now flat 20 SMA, at 51.00.

Support levels: 50.40 49.75 49.20 

Resistance levels: 51.00 51.80 52.20