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The EUR/USD pair fell to a fresh weekly low

9th February 2017

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD  pair fell to a fresh weekly low of 1.0640 this Tuesday, but changed course and closed with gains in the 1.0700 region, amid dollar's weakness during US trading hours. A lackluster macroeconomic calendar kept majors range bound at the beginning of the day, but the greenback finally gave up, as US yields fell to fresh 3-week lows as investors continued to unwind the Trump-trade, as infrastructure investment or tax reforms seem to have not yet reached the US presidential agenda.

The pair's recovery was again limited by the key resistance in the 1.0700/10 region, but also by political risks in the region, in the form of elections in Germany, France and probably Italy during the upcoming months. The French presidential election took center stage these days, after Marine Le Pen, who pledged to leave the EU if elected, has gained the first spot in polls. Adding to the common currency's weakness where  comments from ECB's Draghi, stating that the Central Bank's monetary policy will remain accommodative until at least October 2019, when his mandates ends, dented EUR's demand.

The pair trimmed half of its Tuesday's losses, but still trades in the red for the week and with the upward potential looking limited, given that in the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA  is crossing below the 100 SMA, both around 1.0720, whilst technical indicators have bounced from oversold readings, but lost upward strength within negative territory, indicating limited buying interest around the common currency. The pair posted a daily low of 1.0640, yet failure to sustain gains around the current level, will probably lead to a downward extension towards the 1.0590 region during the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 1.0650 1.0620 1.0590

Resistance levels: 1.0750 1.0800 1.0840

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair continues pressuring its recent multi-week lows on persistent risk aversion. The pair attempted to recover some ground during London trading hours, but resumed its decline after Wall Street's opening, helped by falling US Treasury yields. The 10-year note benchmark fell to a fresh 3-week low of 2.34% as international investors run away from US assets. Japan released its Trade Balance and Current Account figures for December earlier on the day, showing the biggest surplus since 2007. Also, the BOJ released the Summary of Opinions of its latest monetary policy, showing that most board members believe that Japan's economy is recovering, but also that inflation will continue lagging for a while more. Additionally, policymakers expressed their concerns about Trump´s policies, saying that “although overseas economies have turned to a moderate recovery, uncertainties are likely to persist, such as about the economic policies of the new U.S. administration and their impact on emerging economies.” Technically, the risk remains towards the downside as the pair is pressuring its 100 DMA for a third consecutive day, currently around 111.60. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the bias is also bearish, given that the pair has been developing well below a bearish 100 SMA, currently around 113.40, whilst technical indicators have posted modest recoveries within bearish territory, unable to confirm an upcoming recovery. The main bearish target on a bearish breakout is the 109.90 level, the 50% retracement of the latest bullish run.

Support levels: 111.60  111.25 110.80

Resistance levels: 112.10 112.60 113.00

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair ended the day firm above the 1.2500 level and not far from the weekly high of 1.2545, backed by broad dollar's weakness, but also by speculation that the Brexit bill will pass smoothly through the first parliamentary house.  The House of Commons is set to give the final vote on the Brexit bill by the end of the day, which will give Prime Minister Theresa May the authority to officially trigger Brexit and start negotiations for leaving the EU.  Policymakers are currently discussing a set of amendments particularly aimed to define the key principles for the negotiation process. The bill still needs to pass through the House of Lords, later this month, before PM May is finally able to pull the trigger on the Art. 50 of the Lisbon treaty. From a technical point of view, the pair is unable to clearly confirm the break of the 23.6% retracement of the 1.1986/1.2705 rally at the current level, maintaining a neutral-to-bullish stance intraday, given that in the 4 hours chart, the mentioned daily bottom matches a flat 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators are standing directionless within positive territory.

Support levels:  1.2470 1.2425 1.2390

Resistance levels: 1.2545 1.2590 1.2640

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair edged marginally higher, but traded within Tuesday's range during these last few sessions. The pair spiked up to 0.7665 early US session amid broad dollar's weakness, but quickly retreated towards the current comfort zone, where it has been consolidating ever since the week started. There were no macroeconomic news coming from Australia during the past Asian session, but things will turn a bit more interesting during the next one, as the country will release housing and confidence data. After flirting with the 0.7700 level last week, and despite retracements from the region have been shallow, the risk is slowly turning towards the downside, as the pair has been unable to infringe the level since past April 2016, with attempts to advance beyond it resulting in sharp downward corrective moves. Technical readings in the 4 hours chart favor a bearish move on a break below the weekly low of 0.7615, as the pair is unable to extend beyond a bearish 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators have been once again rejected from their mid-lines, now heading modestly lower within negative territory. Still the pair needs to break below 0.7450, a mid-term static support, to confirm a more sustainable decline ahead.

Support levels: 0.7615 0.7570 0.7520

Resistance levels: 0.7660 0.7710 0.7745

Dow Jones

Wall Street closed once again mixed and with the major indexes settling no far from their opening levels, as investors wait for a clear catalyst before taking stronger positions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell roughly 36 points or 0.18%, to end the day at 20,054.34. The Nasdaq Composite set another record close, up by 8 points or 0.15%, to 5,682.45, while the S&P also closed in the green, up 0.07% to 2,294.67. Nike was the best performer within the DJIA, up 2.03%, followed by Wal-Mart that added 1.32%. The banking sector was the worst performer, with JPMorgan chase leading losers' list, down by 0.97%. Technically, the Dow set a lower low and a daily basis, but holds within its weekly range, and the daily chart shows that it's still above a modestly bullish 20 SMA, this last around 19,940, whilst technical indicators have turned flat within positive territory, reflecting the lack of directional strength seen ever since the week started. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the index has settled right below a now flat 20 SMA, acting as immediate resistance at 20,067, while technical indicators stand pat around their mid-lines. Despite setting a fresh record high this week, the upward potential is moderated amid the ongoing risk-averse environment, although a break below 20,008, the weekly low, is required to confirm a bearish extension during the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 20,008 19,940 19,869    

Resistance levels: 20,067 20,104 20,160 

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 advanced 2 points or 0.04%, ending the day at 7,188.82, with investors cautious ahead of the parliamentary vote on the Brexit bill. Despite an advance in metals' prices, mining-related equities closed generally lower, while energy-related ones also fell amid crude weakness at the beginning of the day. Royal Dutch Shell was among the worst performers, down 3.18%, followed by BHP Billiton that shed 3.18% on news that the Escondida mine, in Chile, vowed to strike. Ahead of the Asian opening, the index is a few points above the mentioned close, right below a modestly bearish 20 SMA and with technical indicators still stuck within neutral territory, but turning higher. In the 4 hours chart, the index maintains the neutral stance seen on previous updates, trading within its 20 and 100 SMAs, while technical indicators diverge from each other, as the Momentum heads lower around 100 and the RSI indicator aims higher around 56, not enough to define what's next for the benchmark.

Support levels: 7,163 7,128 7,091

Resistance levels: 7,205 7,258 7,312

DAX

European indexes closed flat, with the German DAX down 6 points, to 11,543.38. Banking related equities remain  under pressure across the region as investors continued unwinding the Trump-trade, but an advance in utilities stocks offset the sector's decline. Within the DAX, Commerzbank was the worst performer, closing the day down 1.73%, followed by Deutsche Bank that shed 1.59%. Vonovia led winners' list, up 3.03%, followed by RWE which added 2.85%. Additionally, persistent political concerns in the EU pushed investors to the sidelines ahead of some clarity. From a technical point of view, the German benchmark presents a neutral-to-bearish stance, given that in the daily chart, it remains below a horizontal 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator holds around its 100 level and the RSI indicator turned south around 49. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA heads south above the current level and below the 100 SMA, whilst technical indicators remain directionless, but within negative territory, leaning the scale towards the downside for the upcoming session.

Support levels: 11,520 11,463 11,408

Resistance levels: 11,605 11,660 11,711

Nikkei

The Nikkei added 97 points or 0.51% to settle at 19,007.60, recovering from an early slump as the yen eased during the Asian session. Asahi Glass led gainers, up 9.13% as the company lifted its full-year forecast and announced a share buyback plan. Yokogawa Electric was the worst performer, down by 7.76%. The benchmark pulled back below the 19,000 level in after-hours trading as the yen strengthened, now poised to open the day around 18,960. From a technical point of view, the daily chart shows that the index remains below a modestly bearish 20 DMA at 19,077, whilst technical indicators have turned modestly higher, with the Momentum around its 100 level and the RSI still within bearish territory, limiting chances of a steeper recovery. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators aim modestly higher within neutral territory, whilst the index is a few points above a bearish 20 SMA, but still below the 100 and 200 SMAs, in line with the longer term perspective.

Support levels: 18,912 18,854 18,770

Resistance levels: 19,009 19,077 19,150

Gold

Spot gold surged to $1,244.67 a troy ounce, its highest in almost three months, as risk aversion dominated the scene, amid political woes in Europe and uncertainty surrounding the new US administration. Base metal also gathered support from news coming from Chile, as workers at the biggest cooper mine in the country that belongs to BHP Billiton, vowed to strike. Dollar's weakness added to gold's bullish case, moreover as chances of a US rate hike continue to diminish. From a technical point of view, the daily chart shows that technical indicators are gathering upward momentum, the RSI around 71, but the Momentum still within bearish territory. In the same chart, the 20 SMA maintains a bullish slope, advancing modestly above a bearish 100 SMA, both in the 1,210/12 region, all of which favors a new leg higher, now looking to test the 61.8% retracement of the post-US election' slide at 1,255.15. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators eased from near overbought readings but remain well above their mid-lines, whilst the 20 SMA maintains a sharp bullish slope, now converging with the 50% retracement of the same decline around 1,230.00, in line with the longer term outlook.

Support levels: 1,230.00 1,219.40 1,210.10

Resistance levels: 1,244.70 1,255.15 1,263.90

WTI Crude Oil

Crude oil prices fell to their lowest in four weeks, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures trading as low as $51.25 a barrel, undermined by the API stockpiles report released late Tuesday, reporting a build of 14.2M barrels. The EIA report released this Wednesday, also showed a large build, but a surprise decline in gasoline inventories offset the crude number. According to official data, US crude stocks rose 13.8 million barrels in the last week as refineries cut output, while gasoline stocks decreased by 900,000 after adding 3.9 million barrels in the previous week. Gasoline futures soared 2.7%, helping oil to recover some ground. WTI daily chart shows that the price remains below a horizontal 20 SMA that stands around 53.00, whilst technical indicators have turned higher within negative territory, unable to confirm further recoveries ahead. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has crossed below the 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst technical indicators have bounced from oversold readings, but the upward momentum faded will below their mid-lines, limiting chances of further recoveries, at least, as long as the price remains below the 53.00 level.

Support levels: 51.80 51.10 50.40

Resistance levels: 53.00 53.65 54.20

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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.