The EUR/USD pair recovered some ground this Thursday

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair recovered some ground this Thursday, surging up to 1.1297 during European trading hours, to settle around 1.1280 by the end of the day. Majors were unable to break their weekly ranges, as the wait-and-see stance persisted, ahead of Yellen's speech in Jackson Hole this Friday. Germany released its IFO survey, which surprised to the downside, as the business climate suffered a setback in August, down to 106.2 from July´s 108.3. The assessment of the current situation fell down to 112.8 from previous 114.8, whilst the expectations sub-component fell to its lowest since October 2014, printing 100.1. 

In the US, macroeconomic figures were mixed, with weekly unemployment claims coming  in at 261K for the week ending August 19, better than the previous 262K and the 265K expected, showing that the labor market remains healthy. Orders for durable goods advanced by the most in almost a year in July, up by 4.4%, while ex transportation came un at 1.5% from previous -0.3%. The preliminary US Markit Services PMI, however, fell down to 50.9, showing that the sector's growth remains sluggish. 

From a technical perspective, the pair has made no progress from previous updates, but the fact that it has been unable to regain the 1.1300 level inclines the balance towards the downside. In the 4 hours chart, the price has been capped by a now flat 20 SMA, currently at 1.1300, whilst the technical indicators head modestly lower within bearish territory, also in line with further slides. Anyway, upcoming direction will depend on how the market takes whatever Janet Yellen has to say on the timing of the next US Federal Reserve rate hike. 

Support levels: 1.1245 1.1210 1.1180

Resistance levels: 1.1300 1.1340 1.3075

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair closed the day barely above its opening level, still trading within a tight range daily basis, as  investors remained side-lined ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, and any clue they may get from Yellen over a possible rate hike this year. Japan will release its latest inflation figures during the upcoming Asian session, generally expected to remain within negative territory, which can trigger some speculation over the possibility of more stimulus coming from the BOJ, although the pair is hardly expected to rally on that. The most likely scenario is that the market will wait for Yellen and jump into the pair after that. In the 1 hour chart, the price is above its 100 and 200 SMAs, both around 100.35, while the technical indicators have lost upward strength and turned lower, holding above their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the price is below its 100 SMA, but more relevant, below 100.65, a major Fibonacci resistance as the level stands for the 50% retracement of the 2011/2015 rally. In this last time frame, indicators have lost upward strength after gaining some positive ground, overall maintaining the neutral stance seen earlier this week. 

Support levels: 100.25 99.90 99.55 

Resistance levels: 100.65 100.95 101.30

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair closed lower for the first time this week, retreating modestly below the 1.3200 figure, in spite of positive data coming from the UK. According to the CBI distributive trades survey for August, the volume of retain trading rose in the month to 9 from -14 in July, while total volume rose to 17 from -11 in July. The report is hardly a market mover, but is another sign of how a cheaper Pound is helping local economic growth, at least for now. This Friday, the UK will release the only piece of relevant data for the week, its Q2 preliminary GDP readings, which may disappoint, as economic activity shrank in the three months to June and ahead of the Brexit referendum vote. The short term picture has turned bearish, given that in the 1 hour chart, the price is now well below a bearish 20 SMA, currently around 1.3210, while the technical indicators have resumed their declines within negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, the price is back below its 200 EMA and a few pips below a bullish 20 SMA, while indicators head lower around their mid-lines, suggesting the decline may extend further, particularly on a break below 1.3160, Wednesday's low.  

Support levels: 1.3160 1.3125 1.3080

Resistance levels: 1.3210 1.3235 1.3270

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar advanced at the beginning of the day, extending up to 0.7638 against its American rival, helped by a modest advance in commodities. Nevertheless, the pair was unable to hold on to gains, and fell down to 0.7601, as gold prices fell to fresh 4-week lows during the US afternoon. There were no relevant news released in Australia, and the calendar will also remain empty this Friday, which means the pair will trade accordingly to dollar's self strength/weakness. From a technical point of view, the pair remains at risk of breaking lower, as it has been unable to recover from the lower range of the 0.76 region. In the 1 hour chart, the price is below a horizontal 20 SMA, while the technical indicators hold flat within negative territory, reflecting the absence of directional strength seen over these last few days. In the 4 hours chart, the 200 EMA converges with the 23.6% retracement of this year early rally at 0.7600, a strong static support, while the technical indicators head modestly lower within negative territory. A bearish acceleration through the mentioned support, can open doors for a steeper decline, down to 0.7450 during the upcoming days.

Support levels: 0.7600 0.7570 0.7535

Resistance levels: 0.7640 0.7690 0.7735 

Dow Jones

After hovering between gains and losses for most of the day, Wall Street closed in the red, weighed by a sharp decline in biotech equities, hit by comments coming from Hillary Clinton on the price of EpiPen, with a retail cost of more than $600.0 these days, up by over 400% in the recent years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, fell by 33 points to close at 18,448.41, while the Nasdaq fell 5 points, to end 5,212.20. The S&P ended down 0.14% at 2,172.47. As for the Dow, the daily chart shows the index posted a lower low and a lower high, while developing below a horizontal 20 SMA. Technical indicators head modestly lower, entering negative territory, all of which increases the risk of a bearish breakout. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart, the benchmark remains below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA accelerating its decline, while the technical indicators have bounced modestly from near oversold readings, far from suggesting the index may recover some ground during the upcoming hours. 

Support levels: 18,458 18,407 18,356

Resistance levels:  18,520 18,570 18,638 

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 lost 18 points, ending the day at 6,816.90, undermined by a decline in the mining-related sector, and after several big companies, such as Dixons Carphone and Hammerson, went ex-dividend. The worst performer was Hikma Pharmaceuticals that plunged 3.5%, as the sector was affected by comments from US Hillary Clinton, criticizing the price of EpiPen, an emergency allergy shot, and calling for the producer company to drop its price. Glencore lost 2.58% on gold's steady decline. Technically, the daily chart for the Footsie shows that the technical indicators head lower around their mid-lines, whilst the benchmark stands a few points below its 20 DMA for the first time since August 4th. In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator remains flat around its 100 level, while the benchmark is between its 100 and 20 SMAs, the shortest providing an immediate resistance at 6,842. Also, and in this last time frame, the RSI indicator consolidates around 38, maintaining the risk towards the downside.  

Support levels: 6,779 6,719 6,668

Resistance levels: 6,842 6,893 6,945 

DAX

The German DAX lost 92 points or 0.88% this Thursday, closing the day a 10,529.59, with most European indexes closing in the red, weighed by a slide in mining and health care-equities.  Further weighing on German equities was a poor IFO survey, showing that business confidence has suffered a setback in August. Airline Deutsche Lufthansa led the decline, shedding 2.5% on news that the cabin crew voted in favor of a new pay and pensions deal provided, ending a long-running dispute between the two parties. The daily chart shows that the benchmark is currently around a still bullish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators have accelerated their declines within positive territory, supporting some further slides ahead, on a break below 10,467, the daily low. In the 4 hours chart, the index is currently below a bearish 20 SMA, at 10,557, the immediate resistance, while the technical indicators lack directional strength, the Momentum around its 100 level and the RSI around 41, also indicating an increasing bearish potential.

Support levels: 10,467 10,387 10,339

Resistance levels: 10,557 10,615 10,663

Nikkei

Asian equity markets closed mixed, with the Nikkei 225 modestly lower, down by 41 points to end the day at 16,555.95. Trading was extremely thin in Asia as investors remained in wait-and-see mode ahead of US FED's upcoming speech. Further weighing on the index, was the previous poor performance of Wall Street, and the fact that the USD/JPY pair continues trading dangerously close to the 100.00 critical level. Mining-related equities were among the biggest losers, with Sumimoto Metal Mining down 4.87% and Toho Zinc plummeting 4.32%. From a technical point of view, the index continues lacking directional strength, as in the daily chart, it's still moving a handful of points back and forth around a horizontal 20 DMA,  whilst above a horizontal 100 DMA, this last at 16,403. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame head lower within neutral territory, not enough to confirm a bearish breakout. In the 4 hours chart, the benchmark is below a congestion of directionless moving averages, whilst indicators hold flat within negative territory. 

Support levels: 16,477 16,442 16,403 

Resistance levels: 16,536 16,582 16,638

Gold

Gold prices extended their decline this Thursday, as Kansas FED's head, Esther George, offer a hawkish rhetoric  on rate moves, saying that is time to move them gradually higher, speaking in Jackson Hole. Spot gold fell down to $1,317.95 a troy ounce, its lowest for this August, from where it bounced modestly to settle below Wednesday's low, around $1,322.30. The commodity is clearly bearish when it comes to analyze charts, although a dovish or hesitating Yellen this Friday can see it recovering all the ground lost this week. In the meantime, the daily chart shows that the price extended further below a now bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators have accelerated their declines within bearish territory, supporting further slides ahead. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA accelerated its slide, maintaining a strong bearish slope  after breaking below the 100 and 200 SMAs, while indicators have lost their bearish strength, but remain within oversold readings and with no aims of turning higher, also in line with another bearish leg. 

Support levels: 1,317.95 1,307.90 1,299.45

Resistance levels: 1,333.50 1,345.20 1,358.05 

WTI Crude Oil

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices posted a moderate advance this Thursday, settling around $47.00 a barrel, in spite of some discouraging data coming from the sector. Firstly, the US EIA reported that supplies of natural-gas rose by 11 billion cubic feet for the week ended August 19th, well beyond market's expectations. Later on the day, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister, Khalid Al-Falih, said that he does not believe a "significant intervention" is needed in oil markets at this time. The recovery seems more due to speculative buying, as the price bounced from its 100 DMA. In the daily chart, indicators are posting modest recovery well above their mid-lines, following a downward correction from extreme overbought readings, all of which suggests the price may recover further. In the 4 hours chart, the price is being capped by a modestly bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators have recovered within bearish territory, but lost upward strength and turned flat around their mid-lines, not enough to confirm an upward continuation. 

Support levels: 46.40 45.80 45.10 

Resistance levels: 47.30 47.90 48.45