The greenback closed the day generally lower, as commodities and equities traded with a firmer tone during the first half of the day

EUR/USD

The greenback closed the day generally lower, as commodities and equities traded with a firmer tone during the first half of the day.  Trading volume, however, was low amid a Japanese holiday, situation that extended all through the day, aided by a scarce macroeconomic calendar. With little news around and the FED and BOJ's meetings around the corner, investors held in cautious mode. A minor economic release in the EU showed that the current account surplus in the area declined from €29.5 billion in June to €21 billion in July, putting at risk any growth's perspective in the region.

The EUR/USD pair rose up to 1.1197, but pared gains after the release of US builders´ confidence data that surprised to the upside, with the NAB housing market index up to 65 in September, the highest in almost a year. The pair spent the rest of the American session consolidating a handful of pips below the mentioned high, maintaining a weak stance from a technical perspective and in the short term, as in the 4 hours chart, the price continues developing well below its moving averages, whilst technical indicators head modestly lower within negative territory, but off their early lows set in oversold levels. German PPI and US Housing starts will gather investors attention this Tuesday, although major breakouts will wait for Wednesday, with the release of the latest FOMC economic policy decision. 

Support levels: 1.1160 1.1120 1.1080 

Resistance levels: 1.1210 1.1245 1.1290

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair slipped below the 102.00 mark and traded as low as 101.57 during the US session, holding nearby at the end of the end, as investors believe that the US Federal Reserve will offer a hawkish stance, but also refrain from  moving rates this month, while also believe that the Bank of the Japan won't do enough to weaken its local currency. The longer term outlook for the pair is still clearly bearish, and unless the FED surprises big with a rate hike, something quite unlikely, there are good chances that it will end the week close to the critical 100.00 level. In the meantime,  the short term picture is also bearish, although with technical readings showing no actual strength, as in the 1 hour chart the price is developing well below its 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst indicators have turned flat within bearish territory, after correcting oversold levels. In the 4 hours chart, the price is hovering around a horizontal 200 SMA, while indicators head south within negative territory, supporting a steeper decline on a break below 101.20, this month low. 

Support levels: 101.60 101.20 100.80

Resistance levels: 102.10 102.50 102.90 

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair corrected higher at the beginning of the week, although the bounce from the 1.3000 level was way too shallow to suggest  that the pair has found an interim bottom. In fact, the recovery stalled right at the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3247/1.2993 post-BOE's decline at 1.3090, and the price quickly retreated from it to end the day barely 30 pips above Friday's close. There were no macroeconomic news coming from the UK, and there won't be many this week, with the BOE's quarterly economic bulletin next Wednesday being the next relevant piece of data coming from the UK. The pair lost momentum and turned lower in the US afternoon, as oil and stocks retreated from their daily highs, supporting a bearish breakout of the critical 1.3000 level during the upcoming sessions. In the short term, technical readings support a downward continuation as in the 1 hour chart, technical indicators are entering negative territory with sharp bearish slopes, whilst the price is extending below a flat 20 SMA. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has extended its decline far above the current level, while technical indicators remain directionless near oversold readings, lacking directional strength, but clearly reflecting the absence of buying interest.   

Support levels: 1.3035 1.3000 1.2970 

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair advanced up to 0.7572, surpassing last week's high by a few pips this Monday. Commodity currencies outperformed against the greenback, underpinned by the early gains in oil and stocks, although the pair retreated as Wall Street entered into negative territory ahead of the close. The RBA will release the Minutes of its latest economic policy meeting during the upcoming Asian session, which may offer some further support to the Aussie, particularly if the Central Bank doesn't hint additional rate cuts for the nearest future. The short term technical picture for the pair maintains the risk towards the upside, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is holding above a bullish 20 SMA, while technical indicators have turned flat right above their mid-lines after correcting overbought conditions, indicating limited selling interest. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators retrace from near overbought readings, while the price does so from the 200 EMA, currently at 0.7570, suggesting that a break above this last is required to confirm further advances this Tuesday. In this last time frame, the 20 SMA heads strongly higher below the current level, limiting chances of a deeper slide, at least from a technical point of view. 

Support levels: 0.7530 0.7490 0.7450

Resistance levels: 0.7570 0.7600 0.7640

Dow Jones

Wall Street closed marginally lower, despite a strong start for  the day,  with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 3 points, to close at 18,120.17. The S&P closed flat at 2,139.12, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 9 points, to end at 5,235.03. US equities are waiting for the upcoming FED's decision, with buyers holding back, despite the Central Bank is largely expected to maintain rates unchanged. Stocks traded higher during the previous sessions, underpinned by a rally in oil prices, but equities momentum faded as the commodity retreated. From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the DJIA continues favoring a bearish extension, as the benchmark failed to hold gains above its 100 DMA, while technical indicators maintain tepid bearish slopes within negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator heads sharply lower after entering negative territory, whilst the RSI indicator also heads south around 49 as the index pressures a modestly bearish 20 SMA, in line with the longer term outlook.

Support levels: 18,077 18,012 17,961

Resistance levels: 18,179 18,248 18,306

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 jumped 103 points to close at 6,813.55, as mining and energy-related equities gained on oil's recovery. Glencore was the best performer, ending the day 6.22% higher, underpinned by a review in its rating from neutral to outperform from Credit Suisse. Anglo American followed, adding 5.71%, while among oil-related companies, Royal Dutch Shell gained the most, up by 1.8%. The daily chart for the London benchmark shows that the intraday recovery was not enough to put it back into a bullish market, as the index is below a bearish 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators have lost upward strength after recovering up to their mid-lines, now offering a neutral stance. In the 4 hours chart, the index was rejected by selling interest around the 100 SMA, whilst technical indicators are retreating modestly within positive territory, indicating that the downward risk is now limited. Further gains are likely on an advance beyond 6,820, the daily high, although the late retracement in oil and base metal prices suggest  the index may edge lower this Tuesday. 

Support levels: 6,778 6,731 6,693 

Resistance levels: 6,820 6,855 6,882

DAX

European stocks recovered part of their recent gains, helped by the early strength in oil prices, with the German DAX gapping modestly higher this Monday, and closing the day at 10,373.87, up by 0.95%. Deutsche Bank was the worst performer, extending its Friday's decline and closing the day 3.12% lower, as the bank may be forced to raise its capital to deal with the US Department of Justice fine over its mortgage-backed securities business. With little news to drive financial markets, the index was confined to a tight intraday range, although technical readings continue favoring a downward extension, as in the daily chart, the benchmark is developing below a bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators maintain tepid bearish slopes within negative territory. In the shorter term, and according to the 4 hours chart the risk is also towards the negative side, as the index is being capped by a bearish 20 SMA while indicators were unable to recover above their mid-lines. 

Support levels: 10,321 10,244 10,206 

Resistance levels: 10,405 10,465 10,523

Nikkei

Japanese banks were closed this Monday amid the Respect for the Aged Day holiday, resulting in no action within local equities. The Nikkei 225 latest registered close was last Friday at 16,519.29, but the benchmark eased in futures trading this Monday, weighed by a stronger yen and pointing to open this Tuesday at 16,375. The daily chart shows that the index is still hovering around a horizontal 100 DMA, while below the 20 and 200 DMAs, both converging around 16,727. In the same chart, indicators head lower within bearish territory, although with limited momentum, amid the lack of volume seen over the last 24 hours. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart also favors a downward extension, as the index is being capped by a strongly bearish 20 SMA, currently at 16,440, whilst technical indicators hold directionless within negative territory. 

Support levels: 16,332 16,268 16,210

Resistance levels: 16,440 16,497 16,569

Gold

Spot gold bounced from two-week low posted last Friday, trading up to $1,318.26 a troy ounce, although the commodity trimmed part of its daily gains ahead of the close. Despite investors are expecting the US Federal Reserve to remain on hold this week, the latest hawkish rhetoric coming from policy makers have put pressure on the metal, and forced speculative interest into scaling back positions. The daily chart for spot shows that the price has recovered after flirting with the 38.2% retracement of its latest decline around $1,308.00, but also that the price is unable to settle above the 100 DMA, while holding well below a bearish 20 DMA. In the same chart the Momentum indicator turned modestly lower within neutral territory, while the RSI indicator hovers within negative territory, leaning the scale towards the downside. In the 4 hours chart, a bearish 20 SMA capped the early advance, while indicators hold flat within negative territory, with no clear directional strength. A break below 1,302.45, September low, is required to confirm further slides, but with the FOMC ahead, the market will likely maintain the commodity within a limited range this Tuesday. 

Support levels: 1,302.45 1,296.85 1,287.50

Resistance levels: 1,318.35 1,326.10 1,333.90

WTI Crude Oil

Crude oil prices advanced roughly 2% early Monday, fueled by news coming from Venezuela, as the OPEC member hinted major oil producers could agree in some kind of action to deal with the ongoing global glut. Also, the commodity found support in news showing disruption in Libya's oil exports, after a militia ground took control of two oil ports during the weekend. The commodity, however, was unable to hold on to gains and retreated towards its daily opening levels below $44.00 a barrel in the American afternoon, and according to technical readings in the daily chart, the risk remains towards the downside, as the price remains well below a bearish 20 SMA, while technical indicators head modestly lower, but within neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart, the price hovers around a bearish 20 SMA while holding well below the 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst technical indicators turned modestly lower around their mid-lines, leaving a neutral-to-bearish stance for this Tuesday. 

Support levels: 43.00 42.50 41.90 

Resistance levels: 44.20 44.80 45.50