Much of the ongoing risk aversion across the FX board is being blamed on the Pound, and the upcoming Brexit referendum

EUR/USD

The week started with risk-off sentiment accelerating, as the latest batch of Chinese economic data spurred concerns over the economic health of the world's second largest economy. May industrial production came in as expected, at 6% year-on-year whilst May retail sales eased to 10% from  previous 10.1%.Fixed investment missed the median forecast and printed at 9.6% year-to-date, versus an expected 10.5%. Asian and European stocks plummeted, whilst safe havens' gold and JPY soared. The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.1231, but bounced with Wall Street opening, as stocks pared losses, stalling at 1.1302. 

The pair now trades a few pips below  the mentioned 1.1300 level, but is overall looking bearish, as in the 4 hours chart, the rally stalled right below a sharply bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have corrected oversold readings reached earlier in the day, before turning flat within bearish territory. The EU will release its April´s production data this  Tuesday, while in the US it will be the turn of Retail Sales, which may bring some action to the pair, although the most likely scenario is that investors remain in cautious mode ahead of the FED's announcement next Wednesday. Should the pair settle above 1.1295, the 38.2% retracement of the May's decline, the downside risk will be limited, with scope then to advance up to 1.1385.

Support levels: 1.1250 1.1215 1.1170 

Resistance levels: 1.1295 1.1340 1.1385 

USD/JPY

The  Japanese yen gained strongly against all of its major rivals at the beginning of the day, sending the USD/JPY pair down to 105.71 its lowest in over a month. Wall Street strong opening helped the pair in trimming part of its daily losses at the beginning of the US session, recovering up to 106.57, where selling interest re-surged. Now holding a few pips above the 106.00 figure, the pair will likely continue under selling pressure, although with the FED and the BOJ scheduled to have their economic policy meetings this week, large movements shouldn't be expected. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the Momentum indicator recovered above its 100 level, but also that the price is below its 100 SMA, currently around 106.70, whist the RSI indicator turned south below its mid-lines, favoring some additional declines for this Tuesday, particularly on a break below 105.90, the immediate support. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators are turning modestly lower within bearish territory, whilst the price remains far below its moving averages, in line with the shorter term outlook.

Support levels: 105.90 105.50 105.00

Resistance levels: 106.20 106.60 106.00

GBP/USD

Much of the ongoing risk aversion across the FX board is being blamed on the Pound, and the upcoming Brexit referendum. New polls released this Monday showed that the "leave" vote is ahead of the "remain" resulting in the GBP/USD plummeting to 1.4114 against the greenback during the London session, from where it jumped  up to 1.4327, only to close the day around the 1.4200. As mentioned before, these wild intraday moves are likely to become the new normal until June 23rd, although the downside remains favored. The UK will release its PPI and CPI data this Tuesday, generally  expected to have improved from their previous readings. If the data misses, the pair could test the 1.4000 figure. As for the intraday technical picture, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is now a few pips above its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have turned sharply lower within positive territory, and are about to cross their mid-lines towards the downside. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have also turned strongly lower, but within negative territory and after correcting extreme oversold readings, also supporting some further declines for this Tuesday. 

Support levels: 1.4190 1.4150 1.4115 

Resistance levels: 1.4250 1.4290 1.4330

AUD/USD

The Aussie edged modestly higher against it American rival, although the pair failed to settle above the 0.7400 figure, despite several intraday attempts. The Australian dollar benefited from gold's gains, as spot advanced up to $1,287.13 a troy ounce, but the negative mood among investors limited the antipodean currencies' gains. After starting the week with a holiday, Australia will release its consumer inflation expectation for June during the upcoming hours. Poor inflation figures where behind the RBA's surprise rate cut, and the almost 600 pips decline in the AUD/USD pair last May, meaning that, if  current expectations are below market's forecast, the pair may plummet on speculation about an August rate cut. From a technical point of view, the intraday outlook is neutral, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is hovering around a horizontal 20 SMA while the technical indicators lack directional strength around their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the pair developed below its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators are turning modestly lower within negative territory, supporting additional declines on a break below 0.7360, the immediate support.   

Support levels: 0.7360 0.7325 0.7270

Resistance levels:0.7410 0.7450 0.7490 

Dow Jones

Wall Street extended its decline at the beginning of the week, with the DJIA ending at 17,732.48, down by 132 points, and the S&P shedding 0.81%, to end at 2,079.06. The Nasdaq composite also closed in the red at 4,848.44, down by 46 points. All of the three major indexes closed near their daily lows, with the tech sector leading the decline. Microsoft lost 2.6% after announcing it would buy LinkedIn for $26.2 billion in its biggest-ever deal. The daily chart shows that  the index was unable to advance above its 20 DMA, now capping the upside around 17,821, while the technical indicators head south below their mid-lines, pointing for a continued slide particularly on a break below 17,666, this month low. In the 4 hours chart, the index fell below all of its moving averages, while the technical indicators have resumed their declines and reached fresh lows near oversold territory, after a failed attempt to recover, pointing for a continued decline during the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 17,666 17,582 17,517

Resistance levels: 17,776 17,843 17,922

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 ended the day at 6,044.97, down by 1.16%, weighed by newly released Brexit polls, showing that the leave campaign has taken the lead. The index fell to its lowest in three months, paring losses a handful of points above the critical 6,000 level. All sectors closed in the red, with Lloyds Bank leading the decline, down 4.2%.  Fresnillo was the top performer, up 1.5% as gold prices soared towards their year highs. The Footsie is clearly bearish in its daily chart, as it has extended well below its moving averages, with selling interest surging on approaches to the 100 DMA, currently at 6,115. In the same time frame, the technical indicators maintain their bearish slopes within bearish territory, whilst in the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has turned sharply lower far above the current level, and the technical indicators consolidate within oversold territory, also favoring a continued decline for the upcoming sessions. 

Support levels: 5,994 5,922 5,868

Resistance levels: 6,052 6,113 6,172

DAX

European equities were dragged lower by the negative tone of Asian shares, with the German DAX down 1.80% to close at 9,657.44. The banking sector suffered the most, with Deutsche AG shedding 3.46% and Commerzbank ending the day 3.45% lower. Automakers also declined, with Volkswagen and Daimler shedding roughly 3%. The index broke through the critical 9,730 region, with the technical bias now having shifted lower. In the daily chart, the technical indicators head strongly south after crossing their mid-lines towards the downside, whilst the index is now well below its 100 DMA. In the 4 hours chart, it's clear that approaches to the mentioned level have attracted selling interest, whilst the 20 SMA turned sharply lower and crossed below the 100 and 200 SMAs, far above the current level. In this last time frame, the technical indicators are giving signs of downward exhaustion near oversold territory, rather reflecting the lack of volume at this time of the day than suggesting  the index may bounce this Tuesday. 

Support levels: 9,597 9,520 9,463

Resistance levels: 9,664 9,730 9,810

Nikkei

Asian shares edged sharply lower, with the Japanese Nikkei plummeting 3.5% or 561 points, to end the day 16,019.18. A stronger yen hurt export-oriented companies, with automakers such as Honda and Nissan leading the decline, down around 4%. The benchmark fell further after the close, breaking through the key 16,000 level, and pointing to start the day around 15,930, level last seen early May. The index has a strong bearish technical tone, given that in the daily chart, the technical indicators head strongly lower well below their mid-lines,  whilst it stands far below its 20 and 100 DMAs, now in the 16,500/600 region. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has turned sharply lower below the 100 and 200 SMAs, but it's way above the current level, becoming irrelevant as intraday resistance. In this last time frame, the RSI indicator maintains a modest bearish slope within oversold territory, around 24, while the Momentum indicator bounced modestly, but remains below its mid-line, all of which favors additional declines for this Tuesday. 

Support levels: 15,907 15,839 15,755 

Resistance levels: 15,975 16,068 16,126 

Gold

Spot gold surged to its highest in four weeks, printing $1,287.13 a troy ounce mid US session, to settle around $1.283.20 at the end of the day. Reduced hopes of a FED rate hike this week, alongside with revived Chinese growth fears and the Brexit referendum looming, created the perfect background for a gold rally, on demand due to its safe-haven condition. The bright metal is expected to resume its previous bullish trend,  and an on-hold stance from the US Central Bank will likely see it breaking through 1,303.00, this year high, en route to the 1,500 level. Technically, the daily chart presents a strong upward potential, given that the technical indicators head strongly higher near overbought territory, whilst the price keeps advancing far above its moving averages. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the technical indicators have turned lower within overbought territory, with the RSI indicator mostly consolidating around 73, suggesting that any downward move will be merely corrective. In this last time frame, the 20 SMA heads strongly higher around 1,271.20, providing a strong support in the case of such downward correction.   

Support levels: 1,217.20 1,263.80 1,256.65 

Resistance levels: 1,287.10 1,296.65 1,303.65

WTI Crude Oil

Crude oil prices closed the day pretty much unchanged, with West Texas Intermediate futures around $48.80 a barrel. The commodity fell at the beginning of the day, but a weaker greenback during US trading hours limited the slide to 48.18, from where it later bounced. There were not much news affecting the commodity, although the OPEC reported that its production fell by 100,000 barrels per day in May led by output declines in Nigeria. Speculative interest is now side-lined after profiting for the latest run beyond $50.00 a barrel, ahead of the major events to take place this week and the next, which include three major Central Banks announcing their latest economic policy decisions. The daily chart shows that an early attempt to advance met selling interest around a horizontal 20 SMA, at 49.25, whilst in the same chart, the technical indicators hold flat within neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart, the risk remains towards the downside, as the 20 SMA heads sharply lower above the current level, whilst the technical indicators are resuming their declines within bearish territory, after correcting oversold readings. 

Support levels: 48.20 47.50 46.75

Resistance levels: 49.25 50.20 50.90