One Financial offers a unique trading analysis service for all customers on both live and demo accounts.

The ‘Get Fit To Trade’ program provides our customers with a personalised report on their trading performance which identifies problem areas of the completed trades. The report is followed by a phone consultation from a member of One Financials dealing team, who will explain in depth the report and help in creating a trading strategy based on the experience, interests and goals of the trader.

There are seven key areas of the report:

• Choice of market – What markets have been traded, what influences the movement in the prices of those markets and what are the relationships between them?
• Trade overview – When do you open and close a trade?
• Trade profitability – The assessment of your overall strategy based on your trading personality, account size and time allocation.
• Trade timing – Understanding the impact of economic data that can affect your positions, including looking at the risks of trading overnight.
• Trading style – Determining the style employed: short, medium or long term trades. We will ensure you make the most of the trading style you use.
• Risk ratio – Looking at your account size and the amount you risk per trade, ensuring you have a sensible risk/reward ratio.
• Risk management – Review the use of ‘stop loss’ orders and advice on preventing large losses.

Sherif Sanad

Sherif Sanad, our head of marketing at One Financial, will talk tonight at 9:45 PM in an interview with Al Hurrah TV about the impact of Dubai debts on the UK and US markets, as well as talking about the $ as a global reserve currency.

The CBI has released a report which makes some positive predictions about the UK economy, although it still strikes a definite note of caution.

First and foremost it predicts the end of the recession. This in itself is not too much of a surprise and indeed some commentators were disappointed that this didn’t happen in the last quarter when other parts of Europe returned to growth.

The report is more positive about unemployment, revising estimates that the eventual peak will be 2.8 million in the Autumn of 2010 and also suggests that both wages and interest rates will start to rise. Wages the report predicts will rise by 3.9% in 2011 and interest rates will increase to 2% in 2010. Interestingly the CBI also concedes that despite the economic gloom, the UK consumer has been more resilient than expected, and points to the weak pound as providing some optimism for UK exports too.

A final prediction of note is their thoughts on oil. A combination of increasing global economic recovery with limited oil supply leads the CBI to the conclusion that 2011 will see oil priced at almost $100 per barrel in 2011.

You can read more on the CBI report here http://www.cbi.org.uk/ndbs/press.nsf/0363c1f07c6ca12a8025671c00381cc7/0d279dd471f9bd888025768e003b3341?OpenDocument

There has been uncertainty surrounding Japanese banks and it all revolves around whether they will be forced to comply with new capital ratio regulations.

The Basel committee has signalled that it intends to publish new proposals regulating banking capital ratios, but it hasn’t set a firm date. The concern is that because Japanese banks are behind other global banking powerhouses in terms of capital ratios they could be hit hardest, requiring more effort to comply. But the Basel committee has also signalled that they are considering whether to allow regional regulators an ability to opt out of the full proposals – so what will the effect be?

To add to the confusion, a report appeared in the Nikkei newspaper announcing that the banks would be given 10 to 20 years to comply with the regulations, a report that was then promptly denied by the Japanese Financial Services Agency who said no such agreement had been reached. Until the situation has been resolved expect fluctuations in the prices of stocks such as Mizuho Financial Group Inc, Mitsubishi UFJ and in the Topix Banks Index.

The $10 billion Dubai bail out has had a big effect on the markets this week. Analysts are predicting further gains on the FTSE, DAX and CAC because although the money had been expected, further delays in its appearance could have led to the market getting nervous about the true state of Dubai’s finances. Future confidence will however depend upon what Dubai does to sort out the debt burden – decisive action could reassure the markets in the medium term but a failure to do so and the problem could re-emerge again.

Andrew Johnston

Shares Magazine (UK) approached our Senior Institutional Dealer to participate in key questions asked by the trading public. To submit your questions please email us on ask@onecfd.com

Shares Magazine Christmas Issue

2010 Outlook Round Table Questions

Will the Western economies see a strong (inflationary) recovery in 2010 or remain stuck in a recessionary (deflationary) rut?

I believe we have far to go with regards to stabilizing as an economy. What I see in the New Year is a government which needs to stop throwing QE at an endemic problem and start with tough fiscal policy making. The trade deficit continues to widen, the economy is predicted to shrink by 4.75 per cent, the DMO has to issue a further £225b of gilts for the financial year end and credit is still very hard to obtain. This combined with an ever increasing unemployment rate does not paint a pretty picture for 2010. Green shoots, where?

Will risk assets (equities, commodities, even property) rise again in value in 2010?

In order to get equities and property moving we need confidence back in the market place, the doom and gloom stories have not gone away and for any ordinary person walking through their local towns I am sure they can see a huge difference with regards to operating businesses, I know I can. I think private investors will still find it increasingly hard to put their money back into equities at the moment I just see major institutions participating and very little from your small investor , this will be the status quo for the future. The lack of investor confidence will only deepen the need for alternative investments and commodities and particular gold look like to be the safe haven for now. The Chinese economy as a driver is picking up and their huge requirement for raw commodities will continue to push prices. We need to have positive economic data on a regular basis in order to return some sort of investor confidence then we can start to push for the future.

How quickly (if at all) will interest rates rise in 2010 and how will that affect risk assets, particularly stock markets?

There has to be some huge developments in the market to even consider an interest rate hike. The economic recovery still looks fragile and sterling is not weak enough to improve the trade situation and contribute to any economic recovery. The current program of asset repurchases runs out in February and the MPC will have a fresh set of projections then to make an assessment but my prediction would be nothing done on the interest rate front and maybe another dose of QE should the economy weaken again.

Will the end of Quantitative Easing programmes lead to a collapse in asset prices?

QE has to end sometime but we have to get the market conditions right in order to turn of the printing presses and the risk is that when the UK makes the transition from the current QE program to a more tightened monetary policy, they get it too late or too early. This situation of when to exit from QE makes risk assets like stocks particularly hard to invest in at the moment. I am against extending quantitative easing for the time being as we need to analyse properly the status of the economy from the New Year and then make an informed decision based on the economic data. If the data proves to be weak we may need to fire up the printing presses again.

Will cyclical and recovery stocks remain in vogue in 2010 or is it time to revisit yield stocks and defensives?

Well this depends in your economic outlook I am particular bearish about the economy so I would stay away from having a portfolio overweight with stocks. This being said there were some terribly undervalued stocks in March and some incredibly good value was had in terms of stock purchases, if we get monetary and fiscal stimulus then it could be a time to expand ones stock portfolio but it is getting the right data to persuade investors back into these riskier assets that is tough.

Will emerging equity markets and economies continue to outperform in 2010?

This is an interesting one; the emerging economies have been on the move as the dollar depreciates. While the US exporting multinationals should benefit from the declining dollar, their gains pale in comparison to the potential of BRIC’s and other emerging market, (particularly the commodity based countries) to continue their surge. Chine continues to keep its currency down and this actively promotes a helping hand for its exporters. It’s positioning of itself as a world economic leader is interesting and is only compounded by their hunger for gold which is increasingly evident. The emerging markets have shown great value and I think will continue to do so but as relative valuations of one BRIC nation versus another move like a comet it presents opportunities along with risks.

What will happen to the bond markets if rates rise and QE is withdrawn?

I don’t see a rate rise in the foreseeable future , however if there was a lift on QE and an interest rate hike in the 1^st quarter of 2010, this would be evidence enough that the economy is starting to make a recovery and that fiscal policy is having an impact. I think there would initially be a large liquidation of gilts and a spike in bond yields as investors would look to take profits and reposition their portfolios in riskier assets.

Will gold and oil continue to go up?

While the US and UK’s finances are in a mess and both governments need to find credible plans to reduce their economy’s reliance on state spending, investors will flock to Gold. The safe haven product while the dollar tumbles and economy’s struggle. Gold is more than ever enforcing itself as favourite amongst investors, however as we see stock markets pick up we should see some gold selling. I think it will stabilize itself a level far above its previous as investors will still want large portfolio exposure to the reserve currency. Oil will remain in the $70-$80 range for the foreseeable future as we wait for stimulus plans to take affect but I believe there is future upside beyond $80 as worldwide economic recovery starts to thrive again.

Will the dollar continue to go down? What are the implications of this?

The dollar will continue to move lower until they come up with a solution which does not involve promoting more easy money and loose credit. The liquidity surge by the fed is not working because of high unemployment, bottoming home prices and stagnant wage growth. The oversupply in the market of dollars compounded by the short term interest rates being nearly zero means that are investors are less likely to hold dollars and while the Chinese yuan is pegged to the dollar every time the dollar falls the yuan boosts the competitive advantage of the Chinese manufacturers. While the weaker dollar should help exporters when you are competing against formidable currency conditions of China something drastic needs to happen.

What impact, if any, will the 2010 General Election have on UK stocks, bonds and sterling?

Well, economic development and progress up until the election will be paramount.

Whether Labour remains in power or the Conservatives regain it, I think you could put Jedward in there and the situation would be the same. The election when it has come and gone and we have a government needs to address what is wrong and how we go forward. The economic situation at the time will dictate the future of the financial markets in the UK. I don’t think there is much between either party in terms of whether either will handle the situation differently. It comes down to addressing the hard facts and then coming up with a solution that matters.

Do you have friends or colleagues who may be interested in opening a One Financial trading account? If you refer a friend to One Financial, and they successfully open an account, deposit and trade, you can earn up to $350. In addition, we will also give the person you introduce a bonus of up to $300 to use in their trading account!

For full details visit our website’s Refer a Friend Page.

We are delighted to inform you that One Financial’s Head of Marketing (Middle East) will be appearing live on Al Arabiya on Thursday 10^th December 2009 at 1.30pm Dubai time, to talk about what’s happening right now in the global financial markets.

One Financial is running a special promotion and is giving all our new live account customers a 2 PIP spread on the very popular EUR/USD pair for life! On top of that, get a 10% trading bonus when you fund your account (up to a maximum of £2,500)*. In order to take advantage of the offer sign up on our Promotional Page.

With One Financial you can start trading with as little as £250 or you can start with a practice account free.

*Offer valid until 31^st December 2009. Terms and conditions apply; for full details please see our Promotional Page.