Markets were all about oil and risk sentiment at the beginning of the week

EUR/USD

Markets were all about oil and risk sentiment at the beginning of the week, as worldwide oil producers failed to reach an agreement on an output freeze during the meeting that took place this past Sunday in Doha, Qatar. Surprisingly, the common currency was unable to run as usual lately on safe-haven demand, holding below the 1.1330 region, the base of the range that contained price for much of the last two weeks. The macroeconomic calendar was quite light all through the day, with only a couple of FED´s speakers hitting the wires that anyway did not add anything new. Things could get a bit more interesting on Tuesday, as Europe will release its latest current account, alongside with the German ZEW survey, while the US will publish some housing data.

As for the EUR/USD technical outlook, there is little to work with at the time being, as, despite the dollar is broadly lower, the pair remains below the critical short term  resistance mentioned before. In the 4 hours chart, however, the price has managed to recover above its 20 SMA, flat around 1.1270, although it was unable to detach from the 23.6% retracement of the latest daily bullish run. The technical indicators in the mentioned time frame, have crossed above their mid-lines, but lost upward strength. The lack of momentum suggests that EUR bulls are taking a step aside ahead of the ECB meeting this Thursday, and that the pair may remain range bound during the upcoming hours, between 1.1220, the 38.2% retracement of the mentioned rally and .1380. 

Support levels: 1.1270 1.1235 1.1200 

Resistance levels: 1.1335 1.1380 1.1420

USD/JPY

The American dollar trimmed losses against its Japanese rival after BOJ's Governor Kuroda reiterated that the Central Bank is ready to ease further if needed. Also, and despite the early risk aversion, US stocks surged on strong earnings reports, leading to an advance in the USD/JPY that anyway stalled around Friday's close. The pair flirted with the 109.00, but retreated from its 100 SMA in the 1 hour chart, whilst the technical indicators in the mentioned time frame have turned flat near overbought levels, indicating some short term upward exhaustion ahead of the Asian opening. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators bounced from oversold levels, but the Momentum indicator remains below its 100 level, whilst the RSI indicator has lost upward strength around 51, suggesting further gains are yet to be confirmed. The dominant bearish trend is still in place, as only some follow through above the 110.00 figure will favor a stepper recovery, quite unlikely considering the poor demand surrounding the USD. 

Support levels: 108.45 107.95 107.60 

Resistance levels: 109.10 109.50 110.00

GBP/USD

The British Pound advanced sharply during US trading hours, resulting the GBP/USD pair advancing up to 1.4289, where it stands by the end of the US session. The pair started the day with a soft tone, falling down to 1.4130 as oil and stocks plummeted, but as risk sentiment improved, so did the pair. There were no macroeconomic releases in the UK, but Treasury chief George Osborne was on the wires, with the latest government assessments on how a Brexit can damage the UK economy. Nevertheless, the pair got a boost from GBP/JPY demand, as the pair added over 340 pips once the JPY lost its upward strength. Still capped below 1.4300, the GBP/USD retains a short term positive tone, as in the 1 hour chart, the price accelerated strongly after crossing above its 20 SMA, although the technical indicators have turned horizontal within overbought territory. In the 4 hours chart, the price has advanced beyond its 20 SMA and its 20 EMA, although both remain flat and with no certain directional strength, whilst the technical indicators have stalled their advances well above their mid-lines, rather reflecting the latest consolidative stage than suggesting the bullish run is exhausted.

Support levels: 1.4240 1.4200 1.4160 

Resistance levels: 1.4330 1.4375 1.4410

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar advanced to a fresh 10-month high against the greenback of 0.7751, after trading as low as 0.7630 at the beginning of the day. The recovery occurred in US trading hours, as Wall Street traded in the green, despite the previous risk-averse environment, whilst oil prices recovered most of its early losses. The RBA will release the Minutes of its latest meeting during the upcoming session that anyway should not come as a surprise, as Governor Stevens usually anticipates most of them in its speech following the economic decision. Nevertheless, and considering the Aussie's strength, comments on concerns over how this may affect the local growth may see the pair retreating temporally. The AUD/USD technical picture is bullish, with investors still willing to buy on intraday dips. Short term, the upward potential is limited, as in the 1 hour chart the technical indicators are retreating from overbought levels, but in the 4 hours chart, the price has accelerated above a bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators consolidate within positive territory, leaving doors open for a continued advance towards 0.7800 and beyond for this Tuesday.

Support levels: 0.7730 0.7690 0.7650  

Resistance levels: 0.7760 0.7800 0.7845 

Dow Jones

US indexes closed in the green, with the DJIA managing a three-digit gain, up by 106 points to end at 18,004.16, first time above the key 18,000 level since July 2015. The Nasdaq advanced 0.44% to close at 4,960.02, while the S&P added 13 points to end at 2,094.34. Stocks were buoyed as better-than-expected earnings reports outpaced oil prices' decline.  The advance was led by Hasbro, as the toy maker reported a strong 16% increase in sales during the first quarter of the year. The index is poised to continue advancing, as in the daily chart, its well above a now bullish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator is bouncing from its 100 level, as the RSI indicator resumes its advance near overbought territory. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart the technical indicators have turned south after extending above their mid-lines, suggesting some consolidation ahead. Nevertheless, and as long as the index holds above its 20 SMA, currently around 17,902, the upside is favored. 

Support levels: 27,902 17,866 17,814 

Resistance levels: 18,025 18,105 18,171

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 closed the day slightly higher, up by just 9 points to end at 6,353.52, as oil-related shares trimmed most of their daily losses. Oil companies closed mixed, as BP lost 0.04% while Royal Dutch Shell ended down by 0.7%, but Tullow Oil added 0.1%. The Footsie remains within its recent highs, but given the lack of progress made over these past few days, the daily chart shows that the technical indicators remain flat within positive territory. Nevertheless, the upside is favored, as in the mentioned chart, the index remains well above a bullish 20 DMA that has crossed above the 100 DMA and is about to cross the 200 one. Shorter term, the index also lacks clear directional strength due to the restricted intraday range, as the Momentum indicator is poised to cross below its 100 level, the RSI retreats partially from overbought levels, whilst the index stands a few points above a bullish 20 SMA. 

Support levels: 6,306 6,243 6,201

Resistance levels: 6,390 6,447 6,488

DAX

European equities managed to post some gains ahead of the close, boosted by hopes the ECB will extend its QE program in the upcoming meeting, and in spite of the preceding risk aversion triggered by oil producers. The German DAX advanced 0.68% and closed the day at 10,120.31, the highest for this 2016. The index is now hovering a few points above such high and those posted during March, but a longer term upward move is still not confirmed, as in the daily  chart, the price overcame its 20 and 100 DMAs, but remains below the 200 DMA around 10,293, while the Momentum indicator heads higher above its 100 level, but lacks enough strength to confirm further gains. In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator presets a limited bearish divergence within bullish territory, but the RSI indicator remains in overbought levels, whilst the 20 SMA heads sharply higher below the current level, supporting a continued advance for this Tuesday.

Support levels: 10,106  10,012 9,918 

Resistance levels: 10,168 10,224 10,279

Nikkei

The Japanese Nikkei  shed 552 points or 3.4% this Monday, closing the day at 16,275.95, with most Asian markets closing sharply lower amid the failed Doha meeting between worldwide oil producers. Insurers and auto makers led the way lower with MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings Inc. losing 7.3%, and Toyota Motor Corp. closing the day 4.8% lower, after suspending much of its production at pants across Japan after last week's earthquakes.  The index, however, recovered most of the ground lost in after hours trading, tracking Wall Street and oil's advances, and is poised to start the day above the 16,600 mark. Technically, the daily chart shows that the index is back above its 20 MSA, while the technical indicators lack directional strength within neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators also present a neutral stance, but chances have turned towards the downside, particularly on an upward acceleration above 16,695, the immediate resistance.

Support levels: 16,576  16,525  16,439

Resistance levels: 16,605 16,794 16,880

Gold

Spot gold posted some modest gains at the beginning of the day, advancing up to a daily high of $1,241.59 a troy ounce before turning lower to end the day around $ 1,233.00. The commodity was on demand during the Asian session as falling oil prices spurred risk-averse trading, although as sentiment improved, gold gave back its gains. The bullish potential of the bright metal has somehow diminished, and the lack of follow through at this first trading day of the week is a clear sign of it, the first sign that the price may fall further during the upcoming days. The technical outlook is neutral as in the daily chart, the price is converging with an horizontal 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head nowhere around their mid-lines. Shorter term, the 4 hours chart also presents a neutral stance, as the price is around its 20 and 100 SMAs, both around the current level, whilst the technical indicators lack directional strength, diverging from each other around their mid-lines. 

the immediate support.

Support levels: 1,214.60 1,206.40 1,194.80

Resistance levels: 1,242.60 1,250.50 1,261.80

WTI Crude Oil

Crude oil prices plummeted this Monday, as during the much anticipated oil producers' meeting in Doha, Qatar, OPEC and non-OPEC producers failed to reach an agreement on an output freeze. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell  to $37.59 a barrel, down for over 7% before paring losses and recover  ground, on news Kuwait's oil production fell as the sector´s workers began an open-ended strike over government plans to cut wages. WTI recovery stalled right below the 40.00 mark, and at the end of the day, things don't look that bad for the commodity, as in the daily chart, the commodity is ending the day above its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators have bounced sharply from their mid-lines, all of which suggest that the downward potential remains limited. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are recovering from oversold territory, but remain below their mid-lines, whilst the price is still below a bearish 20 SMA, currently around 40.40, the level to surpass to confirm further gains for this Tuesday. 

Support levels: 39.55 38.80 38.20

Resistance levels: 40.40 41.20 41.90