The dollar closed mixed this Tuesday

EUR/USD

The dollar closed mixed this Tuesday, gathering momentum particularly against its European rivals, but with most major pairs confined to tight consolidative ranges. The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.0698 in the US afternoon, recovering modestly afterwards to end the day around 1.0710. During the London session, the EU released the revision of its Q3 GDP, which resulted unchanged from the initial estimate of 0.3%. Data coming from the US was mixed, as the trade balance posted a larger-than-expected deficit of $42.6 billion in October, up $6.4 billion from a revised $-36.2 billion in September. This is the largest percentage increase since March 2015, as exports fell sharply when compared to the previous month. Factory orders on the other hand, rose in the same month by 2.7%, the biggest gain in over a year.

From a technical point of view, the pair has retreated from near the 38.2% retracement of its latest daily slide between 1.1299 and 1.0504, at 1.0805, and is currently approaching the 23.6% retracement of the same decline at 1.0690 the immediate support. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA heads north a few pips below the mentioned Fibonacci support, but technical indicators keep retreating from near overbought levels, approaching their mid-lines and indicating increasing bearish interest. A break below the mentioned support should exacerbate the decline, with room for the pair to return towards the 1.0600 price zone.

Support levels: 1.0690 1.0650 1.0610

Resistance levels: 1.0740 1.0780 1.0810

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair was unable to attract speculative interest this Tuesday, trading within a 60 pips range all through the day, with the upside contained by selling interest around 114.18. The pair was unable to react to US data, and trades not far from the multi-month high set last week around 114.90. Somehow, the limited upward potential in the JPY indicates that the latest slide of the greenback against its European rivals, is a due correction after the post-Trump victory rally. As for the technical outlook the short term picture is neutral, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is converging with a still bullish 100 SMA, and a major Fibonacci level, both around 114.00, while technical indicators have no directional strength, flat barely above their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators are also stuck around their mid-lines, although the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading higher below the current level, with the shortest offering a strong support around 111.90. The risk remains towards the upside as long as the price holds above this last, although a break above the mentioned 114.90 region is required to confirm a new leg higher, up to the 116.60 price zone.

Support levels: 113.60 113.15 112.80

Resistance levels: 114.45 114.90 115.30

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair rose to 1.2773, a fresh two-month high, but pulled back in the US afternoon, and settled in the red for the week around 1.2670. Pound momentum faded on renewed dollar's demand, as there were no macroeconomic news in the UK to drive the Sterling lower. Brexit woes are back in fashion, and could affect the Pound during the upcoming days, as the Supreme Court reached the day two of Brexit hearings, on whether the government needs or not the Parliament approval to trigger Article 50 and begin the process of leaving the EU. On Wednesday, the NIESR GDP estimate for the three months to November will take center stage, although manufacturing and industrial output for November will be released earlier in the day. From a technical point of view, the pair has erased all of its Monday's gains, entering in negative territory for the week, and poised to extend its slide according to the 4 hours chart, as the price is breaking below its 20 SMA, while technical indicators head sharply lower and are about to enter bearish territory. The weekly low was set on Monday at 1.2624, the level to break to confirm a bearish extension this Wednesday.

Support levels: 1.2625 1.2480 1.2445

Resistance levels: 1.2720 1.2750 1.2795 

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair ended the day lower  around 0.7450, with the Aussie hit at the beginning of the day by the latest RBA economic policy decision. As largely expected, the Central Bank left its cash rate target unchanged at 1.50%, but Governor Lowe introduced some changes to its previous statement,  expressing his concerns over the situation of the labor market, as part-time employment remains significant. Also, he maintained a cautious approach on inflation, despite the latest inflation report surprised to the upside, up to 1.3% yearly basis. Australia will release its Q3 GDP during the upcoming session, expected to show a 2.5% growth in the three months to September, below previous 3.3%. A reading below expected, could drag the pair below the 0.7400 mark, opening doors for a retest of November's low around 0.7300. Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the price is standing above a bearish 20 SMA, while the Momentum indicator has lost upward strength within positive territory, but the RSI indicator turned south around 47, not enough to confirm a bearish extension, but leaning the scale towards the downside. 

Support: levels: 0.7410 0.7360 0.7325

Resistance levels: 0.7470 0.7510 0.7550 

Dow Jones

US indexes closed marginally higher, but it was enough for the DJIA to clinch a new record close, as the benchmark ended the day at 19,251.78, up by 35 points or 0.18%. The Nasdaq Composite added 24 points to close at 5,333.00, while the S&P advanced 0.34% and settled at 2,212.23. Despite a setback in the October Trade balance readings, data coming from the US released this week showed that the world's largest economy keeps growing at a healthy pace, exacerbating hopes for a brighter future under upcoming President Trump. Among the DAX, Goldman Sachs was the best performer, up by 1.24%, followed by Verizon Communications that added 1.23%. Nike led losers, shedding most of its Monday's gains and settling 2.47% lower. In the daily chart, technical indicators continue consolidating within positive territory, but with no directional strength, mostly due to the limited intraday ranges, although the 20 DMA is still heading higher and below the current level, maintaining the risk towards the upside. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have advanced modestly from their mid-lines, still lacking momentum, whilst the index advanced modestly above a horizontal 20 SMA, in line with the longer term perspective. 

Support levels: 19,177 19,120 19,067    

Resistance levels: 19,282 19,340 19,390

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 closed the day at 6,779.84, up by 0.49% or 33 points, lagging when compared to other major indexes, amid falling oil and industrial metals' prices. London traders remained cautious on renewed concerns over how and when the government will trigger the Article 50 to start the 2-year process of leaving the EU. Among the Footsie, Royal Bank of Scotland was the best performer, up by 8.12%, while Anglo American plunged 3.90%. The benchmark trades around 6,800 early Asia, having advanced a few points above its 20 DMA, but still facing resistance at 6,847, the 100 DMA. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame have entered positive territory, but the upward momentum remains limited. In the 4 hours chart, the index has settled above its 20 and 100 SMAs, while technical indicators have lost upward strength, turning modestly lower within positive territory. The index needs to extend beyond the mentioned dynamic resistance to be able to advance further towards the 6,920 region. 

Support levels: 6,766 6,710 6,676 

Resistance levels: 6,847 6,881 6,920

DAX

European equities edged higher, despite commodity-related equities came under selling pressure on the back of a slide in oil and metals prices. The German DAX closed at 10,775.32, up by 90 points, extending further its gains after the close, now trading around 10,830, its highest for this year. Deutsche Bank added 10.09%, leading advancers, followed by Commerzbank that added 7.69%. Only 5 of the 30 components closed lower, with Merck down 0.49% being the worst performer. The index has returned into bullish territory facing now a major resistance at 10,882, December 2015 high. In the daily chart, technical indicators have entered positive territory with sharp upward slopes, while the benchmark has advanced after falling down to a bullish 20 SMA, now at 10,670. In the shorter term, technical indicators in the 4 hours chart present strong bullish slopes and are currently nearing overbought levels, whist the 20 SMA is slowly advancing above the larger ones, but still all together within a tight range around 10,600. 

Support levels: 10,801 10,750 10,702

Resistance levels: 10,882 10,944 10,991

Nikkei

The Nikkei 225 recovered part of the ground lost at the beginning of the week, adding 85 points to settle at 18,360.54, further extending its advance in electronic trading, now trading at 18,445 ahead of Wednesday's opening. The index surged after its overseas counterpart quickly shrugged off the outcome of the Italian referendum, and edged higher on Monday. Further supporting the benchmark was a steady USD/JPY at ¥114.00. Most sectors recovered, with Kansai Electric Power leading advancers, up by 7.62%, followed by Nippon Yusen that rose 5.78%. Ajimonoto Co., on the other hand, was the worst performer, down by 2.33%. Given that the positive sentiment among stocks' traders extended all through the US session, the benchmark may advance further today, although the daily chart shows that the technical indicators continue lacking strength, but hold within positive territory. In the same chart, the 20 DMA maintains its strong upward slope, now at 18,210, a line in the sand for bulls. In the 4 hours chart, the index presents a neutral stance, hovering around a flat 20 SMA and with indicators heading nowhere around their mid-lines. 

Support levels: 18,355 18,275 18,210

Resistance levels: 18,455 18,490 18,555

Gold

Spot gold traded within Monday's range, settling around $1,168.50 a troy ounce by the end of the US session, marginally lower daily basis, as the dollar gained some track in the US afternoon. Further weighing on the metal were hawkish comments from FED's officers, and speculation that the US economy will keep growing at a fast pace, therefore prompting the Federal Reserve to raise rates also during the first half of 2017.  Technically, the daily chart shows that the bearish potential remains intact, as the 20 SMA heads sharply lower well above the current level, while the RSI indicator heads lower within oversold territory. The Momentum indicator in the same chart remains directionless within bearish territory, also maintaining the risk towards the downside. In the 4 hours chart, the price is now below a flat 20 SMA, but technical indicators entered bearish territory with modest downward slopes, in line with the longer term perspective. 

Support levels: 1,166.60 1,157.10 1,146.80    

Resistance levels: 1,175.95 1,188.10 1,197.20 

WTI Crude Oil

Oil prices extended their retracement this Tuesday, with the US benchmark falling down to $50.27 a barrel before recovering some 50 cents to settle at 50.72 by the end of the US afternoon.  After rallying over 15% on the back of OPEC's decision to cut production output, the commodity began a downward move, mostly due to renewed dollar's strength. Traders are now looking for the upcoming OPEC meeting this Sunday with several non-OPEC oil producers in Vienna, to discuss joining the cartel in slashing their oil output. Technically, the daily chart shows that WTI remains far above is moving averages, with the 20 DMA extending its advance above the 100 and 200 DMAs,  while technical indicators have continued retreating from near overbought readings, heading south within positive territory. The pair bottomed near Friday's low of 50.16, suggesting buying interest is aligned around the critical 50.00 figure. In the 4 hours chart, the price has broken below a now flat 20 SMA, while technical indicators are entering bearish territory with moderate bearish slopes, limiting chances of a recovery as long as the price remains below the mentioned 20 SMA  at 51.20. 

Support levels: 50.20 49.50 48.80    

Resistance levels: 51.20 51.80 52.40