The sudden change in market's sentiment late Thursday put the American dollar under pressure

EUR/USD

The sudden change in market's sentiment late Thursday put the American dollar under pressure by the end of the week, although Brexit related jitters are still pending above investors' heads as a Damocles sword, and will remain as the main markets' mover.  European currencies recovered ground, with the Pound outperforming, but the common currency being unable to advance beyond the 1.1300 level against the greenback, ending the week, however, a few pips below it. During the upcoming days, the macroeconomic calendar will be plenty of critical data, as Janet Yellen will testify before the Congress, the EU will release its latest PMIs Germany its ZEW survey and the US Durable Goods Orders data. Nevertheless, investors won't pay much attention to the numbers, until the referendum is done deal, which will be by the ends of the week. 

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it has bounced from a critical support, a long term ascendant trend line coming from 1.0505, November 2015 low, but has been unable to advance beyond the 38.2% retracement of the May's slide around the 1.1300 figure. The daily chart presents a neutral stance, with technical indicators heading nowhere above, but above their mid-lines, and the price standing a few pips above 1.11245, a critical support in where the 20 and 100 DMA are currently converging. In the 4 hours chart, the pair presents a modest upward tone, as the price is standing above a mildly bullish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators also hold within bullish territory, but with no directional strength. 

Support levels: 1.1245 1.1190 1.1140 

Resistance levels: 1.1295 1.1340 1.1385

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair closed the week around 104.20, having partially recovered from the low set at 103.54, but overall maintaining a strongly bearish trend. BOJ's timing when it comes to economic policy decisions has always been poor, but this time may have been among the worst, given the ongoing risk aversion environment and the poor macroeconomic developments in Japan. Anyway, much of what's next for the JPY will be linked with the Brexit referendum and FED's Janet Yellen testimony before the congress, as further dovish comments from the US Central Bank´s head will likely maintain the currency on demand, in spite of a positive result in the UK poll. Technically, the daily chart shows that the 100 DMA maintains a strong bearish slope far above the current level, whilst the technical indicators have lost downward strength, but remain within oversold territory, with no signs of changing course. In the 4 hours chart, the 100 SMA has crossed below the 200 SMA far above the current level, whilst the technical indicators hold near oversold levels, with the RSI indicator flat around 34, all of which maintains the risk towards the downside as long as selling interest surges on approaches to the 105.00 figure. 

Support levels: 103.90 103.55 103.20

Resistance levels: 104.60 105.00 105.50

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair closed the week with gains at 1.4361, having recovered sharply from a 2-month low of 1.4012, after the tragic shooting of an UK parliamentary that pushed PM David Cameron to decide the suspension of the Brexit campaigns. Although the outcome of the upcoming referendum is still generating high levels of uncertainty, it seems that  confidence on the Pound has grown,  as the latest COT report shows that speculative interest has added 25.4K new contracts last week, aggressively buying the UK currency.  Still, wild, unexpected moves either side of the board can be seen over the upcoming days. The daily chart shows that the pair's recovery has stalled a few pips below the 61.8% retracement of its latest daily decline at 1.4410, the immediate resistance, whilst the 20 DMA heads sharply lower a few pips above the mentioned level, and the technical indicators head sharply higher, but are still below their mid-lines, indicating that some further gains beyond the mentioned level are required to see the pair extending its advance. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart the 200 EMA converges with the mentioned Fibonacci resistance, reinforcing its strength, whilst the technical indicators have lost upward potential, but remain near overbought readings, also maintaining the risk towards the upside. 

Support levels: 1.4330 1.4285 1.4240

Resistance levels: 1.4410 14450 1.4490

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair has closed the week modestly higher, a couple of pips below the 0.7400 level, having spent last Friday consolidating its latest recovery from 0.7285, as investors digested the weekly events. The improved market sentiment and the recovery in Asian and European indexes last Friday, fueled Aussie´s advance, although the poor developments in Wall Street maintained the upside limited. As most antipodean currencies, the Australian dollar has been trading mostly on risk sentiment, something that will likely extend into the upcoming days, with markets probably stabilizing next Friday, once the Brexit referendum is done. Modestly positive, the daily chart shows that the price is above a firmly bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head modestly higher above their mid-lines, although the price failed to overcome 0.7450, the 38.2% retracement of this year's rally. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is neutral, given that the price is above a horizontal 200 EMA and a slightly bullish 20 SMA, but the technical indicators are stuck within neutral territory. 

Support levels: 0.7370 0.7330 0.7285 

Resistance levels: 0.7410 0.7450 0.7490 

Dow Jones

US stocks failed to follow their overseas counterparts, and closed in the red last Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.33% or 58 points, to end the day at 17,675.16, the worst week for the benchmark in over a month. The S&P shed 6 points, to end at 2,071.22 whilst the Nasdaq lost 44 points to end at 4,800.34. Uncertainty over the upcoming British referendum on whether to maintain or not its EU's membership, has weighed on investors' mood, although fears receded partially by the end of the week. News that the usually hawkish FED's Bullard was the one who sees now just one rate hike over the upcoming years in the dot plot released earlier in the week, fueled concerns over the US economic recovery, and weighed on local stocks. The DJIA daily chart shows that the index held within its 20 DMA, capping the upside around 17,824 and the 100 DMA, offering support around 17,567, while the technical indicators have turned modestly lower after failing to overcome their mid-lines, maintaining the risk towards the downside. In the 4 hours chart, the index is hovering around its 20 SMA, and below the largest ones, whilst the technical indicators head modestly lower below their mid-lines, supporting the bearish case for this Monday. 

Support levels: 17,626 17,567 17,596

Resistance levels: 17,705 17,770 17,824

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 climbed 1.19% or 71 points, to close the week at 6,021.09 as Brexit fears subsided. Banks and house builders led the advance, with Lloyds Banking Group up by  5.4%, Chartered jumping 5.1% and Barclays adding 3.9%. The mining-related sector however, was hit by profit taking, with Randgold Resources down by 4.55% and Fresnillo losing 4.5%. Holding above the 6,000 mark, the daily chart of the Footsie shows that it still stands below its moving averages that lack directional strength and remain quite close to each other, indicating the absence of a clear trend. In the same chart, the technical indicators have recovered from oversold readings, but remain below their mid-lines, indicating the upward potential is still limited. In the 4 hours chart, however, the upside is favored, given that the index is now above its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators maintain modest bullish slopes within positive territory. 

Support levels: 6,002 5,949 5,905 

Resistance levels: 6,081 6,121 6,152

DAX

European equities gained on Friday on an u-turn in market's sentiment, with the German DAX closing the day up by 81 points, to close at 9.631.36. The banking sector recovered partially from its latest slump, with Deutsche Bank up by 5.23% and Commerzbank surging by 4.36%. The index, however, closed the week modestly lower, and with quite a limited upward scope according to technical readings, given that in the daily chart, the benchmark continues developing well below its moving averages, whilst the technical indicators have lost their bearish momentum within negative territory, but are flat, with no signs of extending their recoveries. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the index has recovered above a still bearish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator has turned flat after recovering above its mid-line and the RSI heads north around 47, also showing a limited upward potential for this Monday. 

Support levels: 9,645 9,593 9,508 

Resistance levels: 9,740 9,817 9,851

Nikkei

The Japanese Nikkei gained 167 points or 1.19% to end the day at 15,599.66 last Friday, down on the week by roughly 6%, its worst week since early February, weighed by a strong Japanese yen and risk aversion, fueled by the upcoming UK vote on its EU membership.  Mitsubishi Motors Corp. added 6.42%, despite announcing is planning to pay a compensation of around $600 million to mini vehicles owners, after admitting it overstated their fuel  economy. The Japanese benchmark recovered from a four-month low, but the risk remains towards the downside, as in the daily chart, the technical indicators keep heading lower below their mid-lines, whilst the index has  fell further below its moving averages that maintain bearish slopes, in line with a continued decline. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that the technical indicators have recovered from oversold levels, but turned flat within negative territory, whilst the 20 SMA offers an immediate resistance around 15,716. 

Support levels: 15,546 15,482 15,410

Resistance levels: 15,716 15,768 15,831

Gold

Spot gold surged for a third consecutive week, having reached a fresh year high of $1,315.54 a troy ounce, to finally settle around 1,298.00, its highest close since January. Despite risk aversion receded somehow on Thursday,  the commodity recovered sharply before the weekly closing bell, on broad dollar's weakness. Spot is clearly bullish from a technical point of view, but will likely remain volatile ahead of the Brexit referendum, reacting to sentiment's shifts as polls and news hit the wires. Technically, the daily chart shows that the technical indicators have resumed their advance after a modest downward correction from overbought levels, with the Momentum indicator at fresh highs, as the price advanced further above its moving averages, all of which supports further gains. In the 4 hours chart, the price stands above a bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head north within positive territory, in line with the longer term outlook. 

Support levels: 1,293.20 1,284.90 1,276.50

Resistance levels: 1,303.65 1,315.54 1,325.90

WTI Crude Oil

Crude oil prices posted a nice comeback last Friday, with US WTI futures ending the week around $48.80 a barrel. The Baker Hughes report released last Friday, showed that the US oil rig count rose for a third consecutive week, up by 9 to 337, but the commodity rose anyway amid dollar's weakness. WTI  trimmed most of its weekly losses, but closed in the red anyway, as investors are reluctant to push price beyond the critical 50.00 mark in the ongoing risk-averse environment. The almost 4.0% advance seen last Friday, was not enough to confirm a continued advance for the upcoming days, given that in the daily chart, the price remains below its 20 SMA, currently providing an immediate resistance at 49.20, whilst the technical indicators turned higher, but remain below their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, US sweet, light crude presents a modest bullish stance, as the price is now above its 20 SMA, whilst the RSI heads slightly higher around 57, but the Momentum indicator is flat around its 100 line, limiting chances of a steeper advance. 

Support levels: 48.10 47.40 46.50

Resistance levels: 49.20 50.00 50.65