Volume across the forex board was low at the beginning of the week

EUR/USD

Volume across the forex board was low at the beginning of the week, fueled by a holiday in several European countries. Still the American dollar remained under selling pressure, closing the day down against all of its major rivals, exception made by the Sterling. There were no macroeconomic releases in the EU, while the US released the New York manufacturing survey, showing that business conditions fell to -4.2 from previous 0.55, weighing on the USD. Wall Street surged to fresh all-time highs, helping the EUR/USD pair trading up to 1.1203 during the American afternoon. 

This Tuesday will bring a more interesting macroeconomic calendar, with German ZEW Survey, European Trade Balance, and more relevant US inflation figures for July, alongside with other minor reports. The focus will be in inflation, expected generally unchanged from previous month reading, as an upward surprise in there can give the dollar a breath.

In the meantime, the EUR/USD pair trades around 1.1180 by the end of the day, marginally higher, but still unable to settle above the 1.1190/1.1200 region, and with the 4 hours chart showing that the technical indicators have turned lower within positive territory, with the Momentum poised to enter in bearish territory. Still the price is holding above a modestly bullish  20 SMA in the 1.1160 region, while also above the 23.6% retracement of the latest bullish run limiting chances of a downward extension. The critical support comes at 1.1125, the 38.2% retracement of the mentioned rally, and the level to break to see the pair correcting further lower.

Support levels: 1.1160 1.1125 1.1090 

Resistance levels: 1.1190 1.1235 1.1280

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen appreciated modestly against its American rival at the beginning of the week, but the USD/JPY pair remained confined to a tight intraday range, recovering from 100.86, the daily low, to settle a couple of pips below Friday's close. Japan released its preliminary Q2 GDP figures during the past Asian session, but the currency was little impacted by the news. The report showed that the country grew an annualized rate of 0.2% in the three months to June, well below previous 2.0% or the expected 0.7%. Industrial Production in the country during June was a bit more encouraging, up by 2.3% against May's 1.9%, while the year-on-year reading resulted at -1.5% compared to previous -1.9%. The overall picture continues favoring the Japanese yen, with the pair still close to the 100.65 region, the 50% retracement of the "Abenomics" era, and the level to beat to see a downward acceleration. Nevertheless a due to the tight intraday range, the 4 hours chat shows that technical indicators hover around their mid-lines with no certain directional strength, but also that the price remains below a bearish 100 SMA that is currently extending below the 200 SMA, both above the current level. 

Support levels: 101.00 100.65 100.20

Resistance levels: 101.40 101.95 102.35 

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair fell down to 1.2865 this Monday, with no certain catalyst beyond the move, but self Pound's weakness. The UK released no macroeconomic data, although will offer different inflation figures on Tuesday, including CPI, PPI and the Retail Price index for July. The readings will be closely watched as it will be post-Brexit data, seizing the effect of the UK's decision to leave the EU. Inflation is expected to have fallen by 0.1% during the month, and to have held steady around 0.5% year-on-year, but market's forecasts seem too optimistic and  a negative surprise  could see the pair falling below the 1.2793 multi-decade low posted last July. In the meantime, the pair holds below the 1.2900 level, with the short term picture supporting a bearish extension during the upcoming session, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is being capped by a bearish 20 SMA, currently at 1.2895, whilst the technical indicators remain flat within negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has accelerated its decline above the current level, now offering a dynamic resistance around 1.2940, whilst the technical indicators hold within negative territory, with no directional strength. 

Support levels: 1.2870 1.2830 1.2790

Resistance levels: 1.2900 1.2940 1.2985 

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair recovered ground this Monday, bouncing from a daily low set at 0.7636 on the back of dollar's weakness. There was little driving the market, but the Aussie found support in the steady recovery of oil prices, as the commodity extended its rally beyond $ 45.00 a barrel. The pair however, held below the 0.7700 figure, and the technical picture in the short term shows a limited upward potential, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is above its 20 SMA, but the technical indicators have turned  south within positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, a bearish 20 SMA capped the upside, while technical indicators have turned flat below their mid-lines, after recovering from near oversold readings. The pair needs to recover above the mentioned 0.7700 level to be able to resume its advance and attempt a test of the year high in the 0.7830 region, although a break below 0.7600, a strong Fibonacci support, will likely signal a deeper downward corrective move that can extend down to 0.7450. 

Support levels: 0.7635 07600 0.7570

Resistance levels: 0.7700 0.7740 0.7790

Dow Jones

Wall Street advanced to fresh record highs, with the DJIA ending the day at 18,638.05, up by 59 points. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.56% to close at 5,262.02, while the S&P advanced 0.28%, to 2,190.15. US stocks got a boost from rising oil prices, on continued hopes the OPEC will take some steps to deal with the global glut that has been affecting prices for over a year. Goldman Sachs was among the biggest winners, up by 1.41%, followed by Caterpillar that added 1.39%. The Dow daily chart presents a neutral-to-bullish stance, with limited intraday ranges maintaining the Momentum indicators flat for already three weeks, as well as the 20 DMA, although this last has been attracting buyers on retracements ever since the month started. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart points to a bearish correction, as despite the index holds above a bullish 20 SMA, technical indicators have turned south within positive territory, with the Momentum indicator about to cross its mid-line. 

Support levels: 18,628 18,574 18,532 

Resistance levels: 18,672  18,726 18,770

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 added 25 points to close at 6,941.19, helped by continued weakness in the Sterling, up by an eighth consecutive day, and at fresh one-year highs. Energy-related equities led the advance, with BP closing 1% higher and Royal Dutch Shell adding 0.75%, on the back of oil's recovery. Helping UK shares were also record lows in bond yields, prompting investors into higher yielding assets. The Footsie established a higher high intraday at 6,958, and maintains the positive tone seen on previous updates. In the daily chart, the RSI indicator continues heading higher, despite being at 75, while the Momentum indicator advanced remains mostly flat within positive territory, rather due to the lack of volume than to the absence of buying interest. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture offers a neutral-to-bullish stance, with the benchmark well above its moving averages, the Momentum indicator lacking directional strength above its 100 level, and the RSI indicator heading modestly lower within overbought territory. 

Support levels: 6,882 6,831 6,782 

Resistance levels: 6,960 7,000 7,040

DAX

European equities ended the day marginally higher, with the German DAX adding 25 points to close the day at 10,739.21. The index surged intraday to a fresh yearly high of 10,807 in intraday trading, now a few points below 2015 close. The automaker Volkswagen led the rally, closing 1.33% higher after the company announced that the German's federal motor transport authority, KBA, approved technical remedies for engines used by some of the company's models. A lackluster macroeconomic calendar and with half European countries on holiday, resulted in extreme thin trading also within stocks. Now holding near the mentioned daily close, the index maintains its positive tone, although the upward momentum is fading, given that the technical indicators have turned modestly lower near oversold readings, although the downward potential remains limited, as the 20 SMA maintains its sharp bullish slope far below the current level. In the 4 hours chart, the benchmark is also above its moving averages, but the Momentum indicator has turned lower, now consolidating barely above its 100 level, while the RSI turned modestly lower, but remains in overbought levels, indicating that the index may extend its advance during the upcoming sessions. 

Support levels: 10,672 10,610 10,557 

Resistance levels: 10,744 10,810 10,860

Nikkei

The Nikkei 225 edged lower this Monday, closing the day at 16,869.56, down by 50 points as the Japanese yen inched higher on the back of sluggish US data released last Friday. Also, weaker than expected Q2 GDP figures weighed on investors' sentiment,  spurring fears of an economic slowdown in the country. The index advanced modestly in after hours trading, as Wall Street surged to fresh record highs, but gains were limited by yen's persistent strength. Technically, the daily chart favors a continued advance, as the benchmark remains above its 20 and 100 DMAs, while the technical indicators have extended their advances within positive territory. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart, presents a neutral-to-bullish tone, as the index holds above a bullish 20 SMA, but the technical indicators hold flat within positive territory, this last, mostly due to the limited trading volume seen through the day. 

Support levels: 16,832 16,782 16,727 

Resistance levels: 16,912 16,955 17,010

Gold

Gold prices consolidated this Monday, with spot closing the day at around $1,340.00, marginally higher on the day, as investors are waiting  for more clues coming from the US Federal Reserve next Wednesday, in the form of FOMC's Minutes. The commodity may also react to the release of US inflation data this Tuesday, getting a boost from disappointing results as poor inflation will delay further chances of a US rate hike. Technically, spot's daily chart shows that the neutral stance persists, with the commodity finding short term demand on slides towards the 1,333.50 level, the 23.6% retracement of the latest bullish run, although the 20 SMA remains horizontal, and the technical indicators lack directional strength around their mid-lines. In the shorter term, the 4 hours chart shows that price is right below all of its moving averages that converge at 1,341.50, a clear reflection of the absence of follow-through seen lately, while the technical indicators have turned modestly higher below their mid-lines, lacking directional momentum. 

Support levels: 1,333.50 1,320.251,310.80

Resistance levels: 1.341.50 1,352.60 1,367.20 

WTI Crude Oil

Oil prices keep recovering ground at the beginning of the week, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices extending up to $45.85 a barrel, ending the day a handful of cents below the level, and above the 45.00 mark for the first time since June 21st. Hopes that the informal OPEC meeting at a conference in Algiers next month will result in an output freeze, underpinned the commodity that rose over 10% during the last three trading days, as Russia Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, said that his country was talking with Saudi Arabia and other producer countries to achieve market stability. Technically, the daily chart shows that the price is nearing its 100 DMA, around 46.20 and now the immediate resistance, while the technical indicators maintain their bullish slopes well above their mid-lines, supporting additional gains for the upcoming sessions. In the 4 hours chart, the price has extended further above its moving averages, with the 20 SMA now heading sharply higher around 43.85, although the technical indicators are giving signs of upward exhaustion within extreme overbought levels, suggesting WTI can consolidate some before resuming its advance. 

Support levels: 45.60 45.00 44.40 

Resistance levels: 46.20 46.80 47.50