T-Mobile gains after delivering in 2022, focus turns to massive buyback

By Geoffrey Smith

Shares in T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) reversed earlier losses Wednesday after the cellular network carrier's quarterly posted results and guidance that were essentially in line with expectations. With the company checking all the boxes, Wall Street analysts said investors should turn their attention to the massive share repurchase plan. Shares last traded up 1%.

T-Mobile, the U.S.'s second-biggest wireless operator since its merger with Sprint, said revenue fell 2.5% from a year earlier to $20.27 billion, some 2% below market consensus, despite adding substantially to its subscriber base in the year. As such, it joined rivals AT&T (T) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ) in posting lackluster numbers for the quarter that were marked by an intensifying fight to win customers as disposable incomes were squeezed by high inflation in the second half of last year.

Diluted earnings per share over the whole of 2022 were down 15% from 2021's levels at $2.06, despite a rebound in the fourth quarter to $1.18 - up 250% from 2021.

T-Mobile gained a net 927,000 new post-paid phone subscribers in the fourth quarter and 3.1 million over the year as a whole. This makes T-Mobile the only operator to grow year-over-year. It expects this growth to accelerate in 2023, adding between 5M and 5.5M new customers on a net basis.

The company was still upbeat about its prospects for the coming year, forecasting core adjusted earnings before interest taxes, depreciation and amortization to grow around 10% to just under $30B, and free cash flow to grow 75% to around $13.35B.

In part that's down to the realization of efficiency gains from the merger, which T-Mobile estimates at as much as $7.5B this year (up from $6B last year).

A third of that represents reductions in selling, general and administrative costs, while another $1.6B comes from rationalizing network investment costs. Merger-related costs, meanwhile, are expected to be much less, at $1B before taxes.

While T-Mobile "checked all the boxes" for the final quarter and outlook for 2023, MoffettNathanson's analyst said T-Mobile’s outsized plan for share repurchases is an "encore" for Wall Street. With the plan, the analyst said, "[w]e are now at the front edge of T-Mobile’s next chapter."

MoffettNathanson highlights that T-Mobile is planning an "astounding" $60B of share repurchases over the next three years. "Assuming that parent Deutsche Telekom (OTC:DTEGY) does NOT sell into the buy-backs, T-Mobile’s public float will shrink by something like two-thirds," the analyst comments. The analyst feels that a buyback of that magnitude is non in the stock price yet.

(Article originally published at 8:05am ET (13:05 GMT))