EUR/USD steadies, but bears sharpen claws as dollar feasts on Fed bets

By Yasin Ebrahim 

Investing -- The euro eked out a small gain against the dollar Friday in a desperate attempt to find its footing after weeks of selling, but some see the reprieve as another opportunity to load up on bearish bets against the single currency as the greenback feasts on hawkish Fed bets.

EUR/USD rose 0.3% to $1.0694 to end the week slightly higher following two weeks of losses.

“We are recommending a new short EUR/USD trade idea to reflect our view that there is room for the USD rebound to extend further,” MUFG said in a note, targeting a drop in EUR/USD to $1.0350.

The fresh bearish call on the euro comes as the dollar returned to strength, underpinned by rising Treasury yields as investors price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve following recent data showing inflation remains hot and economic growth remains steady.

"In light of the stronger growth and firmer inflation news, we are adding another 25-basis point rate hike to our Fed forecast," Goldman Sachs said in a note.

The odds of a June rate hike have jumped to 53% from 35% in the prior week, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

A rate hike in June would take the Fed funds rate to a 5% to 5.5% range, above the 5% to 5.25% range projected at the Fed’s December meeting.

As the dollar feasts on a meal of fresh hawkish Fed bets, the euro is struggling to find its next catalyst as most of the goods news -- an improving cyclical outlook amid an energy crisis that failed to materialize – has been priced in.

“The [EUR/USD] price action also highlights that the euro-zone rate market and EUR have already moved a long way at the start of this year to better reflect the improving cyclical outlook,” MUFG added.