Crude slumps on fears Fed tightening will hit demand

By Peter Nurse   

Investing.com -- Oil prices slumped Friday, heading for a weekly decline on concerns about future U.S. economic growth following signals that the Federal Reserve is set to continue raising interest rates for longer than previously expected.

By 09:35 ET (14:35 GMT), U.S. crude futures traded 3.7% lower at $75.58 a barrel, while the Brent contract fell 3.5% to $82.17 a barrel. Both contracts are on course for losses of over 4% this week.

U.S. economic data released this week has pointed to inflation remaining sticky, with both consumer and producer prices coming in higher than expected in January, while retail sales are booming and the labor market remains very healthy.

This all points to the Federal Reserve flexing its monetary muscles once more, with a hike of 50 basis points in March, double the increase earlier this month, now seen as a possibility.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said Thursday she had seen a “compelling economic case” for rolling out another 50 basis-point hike, and St. Louis President James Bullard said he wouldn’t rule out voting for such a move.  

Goldman Sachs doesn’t see the Fed hiking by half a percentage point next month, but the influential investment bank said late Thursday that it is now expecting the Fed to raise interest rates three more times this year by a quarter of a percentage point each, adding another hike in June.

This has raised concerns that the U.S. economy, the world’s largest consumer of crude, will contract sharply later this year.

Aside from the demand side of the equation, data this week showed another build in U.S. inventories, which swelled to the most since 2021.

Also weighing on the crude market was the surging US Dollar Index, which hit a six-week high this week. This makes a commodity denominated in dollars, like oil, more expensive for foreign buyers.

The concern that the U.S. economy will contract this year has this week largely offset optimism over a potential recovery in Chinese demand as the second largest economy in the world, and the largest importer of crude, rebounds from the impact of its severe COVID restrictions.

Data released earlier this week showed that China's January air passenger traffic rose 34.8% from a year earlier.

Additionally, the People’s Bank of China offered a short-term cash boost to lenders on Friday, with the Chinese central bank seeking to support the economy in the wake of the ending of its lockdowns.

The Baker Hughes guide to the number of working oil rigs in the U.S. and the CFTC positioning data are due later in the session, as usual.