Boeing increases 20-year forecast for China's demand for new planes

Boeing (NYSE:BA) has revised its annual 20-year forecast for new plane deliveries to China, citing the country's robust economic growth and increasing demand for domestic travel. The US planemaker now predicts that Chinese airlines will need 8,560 new commercial planes through 2042, a slight increase from last year's forecast of 8,485. This surge in demand is expected to account for 20% of global airplane deliveries over the next two decades.

The revised forecast, released on Wednesday, estimates that China's commercial airliner fleet will more than double to nearly 9,600 jets within the next two decades. The country's domestic aviation market is projected to become the largest globally by the end of the forecast period. This growth is driven primarily by the demand for single-aisle jets, with Chinese carriers expected to require approximately 6,470 such airplanes like the Boeing 737 MAX family.

"Domestic air traffic in China has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels and international traffic is recovering steadily," Darren Hulst, Boeing's Vice President of Commercial Marketing, said in a statement. "As China's economy and traffic continue to grow, Boeing's complete lineup of commercial jets will play a key role in helping meet that growth sustainably and economically."

In addition to single-aisle jets, Chinese carriers are also projected to need around 1,550 widebody airplanes to support their international routes expansion. The remaining deliveries will be accounted for by the replacement of older aircraft with modern, more efficient ones and the demand for 190 new freighter deliveries driven by express shipping and e-commerce.

Boeing estimates that the new aircraft will require approximately 433,000 new aviation personnel, including 134,000 pilots, 138,000 technicians, and 161,000 cabin crew members. The maintenance and upkeep of the new aircraft alone are expected to fuel demand for $675 billion in aviation services.

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