BofA Securities looks for secular bull market for U.S. equities

Investing.com - The current levels of the S&P 500 suggest that the 2021-2024 Presidential Cycle is extended when compared with the levels suggested by both the average and first term cycles, but BofA Securities still sees upside ahead. 

The average returns for these cycles suggest February-June levels in year 4 of a Presidential Cycle that align with big supports near 4800 and 4600, and then around 5000-5200 into the year end, the bank said, in a research note dated March 18.

At 0935 ET (1435 GMT), the S&P 500 traded 14 points, or 0.3%, lower at 5,133.99.

 However, “we remain believers in the secular bull market for U.S. equities,” the bank said.

The current Presidential Cycle is lagging the average and first term secular bull market cycles, which suggests that the S&P 500 has room to run in 2024. 

“All secular bull market Presidential Cycles put the SPX at 5580-5600 in February-March Year 4, moving up to SPX 6300s into year end. First term secular bull market cycles suggest SPX 5350-5370 in February-March Year 4, moving up to SPX 6200s into year end,” the bank added.

Additionally, the December breakout above the 4600 area on the benchmark index completed a 2022-2023 cup and handle that favors upside into the 5200s and 5600s. 

The January breakout above the 4800 area does not rule out 6150, which aligns with the catch-up trade potential for a secular bull market Presidential Cycle into year end 2024.