Copper prices hit 14-mth highs on China optimism, tight supply outlook

Investing.com-- Copper prices rose to 14-month highs in Asian trade on Thursday, buoyed by increasing optimism over top importer China, while potential production cuts by the country’s biggest refiners presented a tighter outlook for supplies.

Three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.5% to $9,347.50 a ton, while one-month U.S. copper futures rose 0.5% to $4.2328 a pound by 23:40 ET (03:40 GMT). Both contracts were at their highest levels since January 2023.

Weakness in the dollar also aided commodity prices, as the greenback tumbled from five-month highs hit earlier this week. 

China PMIs show improving factory activity, support copper prices 

Sentiment towards copper was boosted by a string of positive purchasing managers index readings from China, which showed improving manufacturing activity through March. 

Chinese factories are a key source of demand for copper, with any improvements in output heralding more future demand for the red metal.

While Chinese copper inventories were seen increasing so far in 2024, higher demand could still push up the country’s appetite for copper imports, especially if the world’s second-largest economy recovers further. 

Chinese copper smelters seen considering output cuts 

Recent reports showed that China’s biggest copper smelters were considering output cuts between 5% to 10% of overall production. 

The move comes after production disruptions in major global copper mines cut supplies of copper ore, which in turn drove processing fees for major smelters to near zero.

Bloomberg reports showed that 13 major Chinese smelters proposed cutting production between 5% and 10%, although it still remained unclear whether the cuts would be implemented. 

“The copper concentrate market has tightened up significantly following some cutbacks to output from copper mines. This has led Chinese smelters, which produce over half the world’s refined copper, to consider output cuts after treatment charges fell close to zero,” ANZ analysts wrote in a recent note. 

Lower production of refined copper is also expected to tighten global copper supplies, especially in the face of improving Chinese demand.