Asia FX rises as CPI data dents dollar, puts rate cuts in focus

Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies rose on Thursday after some softer U.S. consumer inflation readings pulled the dollar to a one-month low and saw traders increase bets on a September interest rate cut.

But gains in some regional units were held back by a mix of soft economic data and trade tensions, especially in Japan, China and Australia.

Dollar at over 1-mth low as CPI data pushes up rate cut hopes 

The dollar index and dollar index futures fell 0.2% each in Asian trade, extending steep overnight losses after month-on-month consumer price index inflation and core CPI read cooler than expected for April.

The readings, which were also followed by softer-than-expected retail sales data, ramped up hopes that inflation will cool further in the coming months, giving the Fed more confidence to begin cutting interest rates.

This saw traders increase their expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September, the probability of which rose to nearly 54% from last week’s 49%, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.

Still, the CPI reading remained well above the Fed’s 2% annual target, while a string of Fed officials also warned over the past week that the central bank will need more convincing that inflation was going down. 

Japanese yen recovers, but weak GDP throttles rebound 

The Japanese yen’s USDJPY pair, which is inversely related to strength in the currency, fell 0.6 to about 154 yen on Thursday, extending overnight declines as the dollar weakened. 

But the pair still remained well above levels hit earlier in May, when the government was seen intervening in currency markets. 

The yen’s recovery stalled as gross domestic product data showed the Japanese economy shrank much more than expected in the first quarter, as consumer spending stalled.

This raised doubts over just how much headroom the Bank of Japan has to keep raising interest rates. 

Other major Asian currencies were also held back by idiosyncratic factors.

Chinese yuan, Australian dollar lag 

The Chinese yuan’s USDCNY pair fell only slightly, as sentiment towards China was battered by Washington imposing stricter trade tariffs on China’s key industries, such as electric vehicles, medicines and solar technology. Beijing threatened retaliation over the move.

Chinese industrial production and retail sales data is due on Friday.

The Australian dollar’s AUDUSD pair moved little as an unexpected increase in unemployment ramped up expectations of a cooling labor market, which in turn gives the Reserve Bank less impetus to raise interest rates further. Concerns over China also weighed on the Aussie, which has high trade exposure to the country.

Other Asian currencies advanced on a weaker dollar. The South Korean won’s USDKRW pair fell 0.4%, while the Singapore dollar’s USDSGD pair fell 0.1%.