One retail stock to buy and one to avoid ahead of earnings: Evercore ISI

Investing.com - On Monday, analysts at ISI Evercore's provided insights on two retail giants: Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) and Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT). Investors are advised to consider Walmart as a strong buy while exercising caution with Target ahead of their upcoming earnings reports.

Walmart (WMT): A Steady Choice

Walmart, Inc. (WMT) currently priced at $67.95, has been rated as an "Outperform" by ISI Evercore with a target price of $74.00. Analysts have initiated a positive Tactical Trading Call (TAP) for Walmart ahead of its earnings release on August 15. They predict that Walmart will meet its full-year guidance for sales and earnings, which is an exceptional feat amidst the consumer market's volatility.

The optimism stems from several key factors. Analysts forecast a 2Q comparable sales increase of 3.6%, slightly above the Street’s estimate of 3.5%, with earnings per share (EPS) to be around $0.65. Walmart's gross margin is expected to expand as the company leverages its strong vendor relationships to fund promotions and manage SG&A efficiencies. The anticipated EBIT margin stands at 4.7%, surpassing the Street's projection of 4.6%.

Additionally, Walmart’s initiatives in digital advertising, Walmart Plus, and automation are projected to enhance productivity and improve margins. The company's solid consumer base, which spans low to middle-income shoppers as well as higher-income consumers trading down, further positions Walmart as a resilient option in a choppy retail environment.

However, certain risks remain, including potential moderation in demand trends after the quarter and the impact of ongoing wage inflation, technological investments, and increased operational costs. Any execution missteps could challenge Walmart’s reputation as a stable investment.

Overall, Walmart's strategic positioning and robust execution make it a recommended stock, providing a safe haven amidst market turbulence.

Target (TGT): Exercise Caution

Conversely, ISI Evercore suggests caution with Target Corporation (TGT), currently trading at $135.50. Rated as "In-Line" with a revised target price of $158.00, analysts have added Target to their Tactical Underperform (TAP) list ahead of its earnings announcement on August 21. Despite expectations that 2Q results may meet or slightly exceed Street estimates, there are concerns regarding Target’s performance in the latter half of the year.

The analysis notes that comp and traffic trends for Target appear to be moderating instead of improving into 3Q. Analysts have revised their 3Q comparable sales expectations down from 2.4% to 1.5%, driven by data indicating a slowdown in consumer activity. This conservative outlook extends to full-year EPS guidance, expected to fall towards the lower end of the $8.60-$9.60 range, with less margin recovery than anticipated.

Furthermore, initiatives like price reductions and merchandising efforts are not yielding the expected results, reflecting broader systemic challenges. The downward revision of Target’s base case price to $158 reflects these negative outlooks for 2025 EPS and ongoing margin pressures.

There remains a risk that Target could defy these expectations if trends improve in August or if the company manages to beat and raise its 3Q guidance. In such a scenario, the stock could see a significant uptick.