Barclays downgrades Air France-KLM and sharply lowers target; Stock falls

Investing.com - Air France KLM SA (EPA:AIRF) stock dropped more than 4% Friday, as analysts from Barclays Bank downgraded their rating on the leading French airline.

Barclays indeed downgraded the stock to "equal weight" from "overweight" previously, with a price target reduced from 15 euros to 9.5 euros, justified mainly by a forecasted EBIT for the current fiscal year being lowered by 16%, while that for the following year was lowered by 12%.

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The analysts particularly cited the uncertainty related to the French legislative elections this weekend and the upcoming changes, knowing that Air France-KLM had so far benefited from a constructive relationship with the French government, which had supported it during the pandemic, among other things.

They estimated that a government dominated by the far left would lead to an increase in labor costs and a deterioration in industrial relations, while a government led by the RN would have less impact on labor costs but could increase union activism.

The Barclays analysts also highlighted the challenges Air France-KLM faces in the Netherlands, with the uncertainty surrounding Schiphol Airport, as the government wishes to reduce traffic there.

They also highlighted recent comments from the CEO, who mentioned challenges on the long-haul network, while the CEO of Lufthansa pointed out the weakness of the economy class in the North Atlantic.

In the short term, Barclays analysts also estimated that the Olympic Games would be negative for the company, noting that freight cargoes and connecting travelers might avoid Paris, while profitability is expected to be affected by stronger growth in short-haul flights than in long-haul flights.