Crude settle higher ahead of fresh inventory data eyed

Investing.com -- Oil prices settled higher Tuesday, as traders awaited fresh inventory to weigh up expectations for a pick up in demand as the summer season is underway. 

At 14:30 ET (18:30 GMT), the U.S. crude futures 1.5% to settle at $81.57 a barrel and the Brent contract climbed 1.3% to $85.33 a barrel. 

US inventories in focus

The latest forecast of U.S. crude stockpiles are due later in the session, with the American Petroleum Institute due to reveal its estimate, ahead of the official numbers on Thursday. This is a day later than usual given Wednesday’s Juneteenth holiday.

These crude inventories are expected to have fallen by 2.3 million barrels in the week to June 14, according to analysts polled by Reuters.

Consensus has been for higher oil prices into the third quarter, noted Bank of America, but it is not yet clear whether balances will firm enough in 3Q24 to tip the market from a large apparent surplus into a deficit that can lift prices. 

Extended OPEC+ cuts will help, especially if compliance is high and Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan make up for under-compliance during the summer months. However, if inventory builds persist into 3Q, petroleum prices and structure will likely come under pressure, the bank added.

The fresh inventory data will help investors gauge supply and demand balance at time when many are pinning hopes on a traditional pick in summer demand.

Uncertainty over demand, supply balance 

Both crude contracts gained around 2% on Monday, closing at their highest levels since April, buoyed by expectations that the Northern Hemisphere summer vacation season will boost fuel demand this summer. 

However, the global benchmark, Brent, remains way off the $90 peaks seen in mid-April.

"As Middle East tensions de-escalated and perceived supply disruptions risks faded in April, the oil market shifted its focus back to fundamentals, which have been soft for some time,” said analysts at Bank of America, in a note dated June 17.

Supply growth contributed to the surplus, but demand also played a role as consumption growth clearly decelerated, with the first quarter averaging 890,000 barrels a day (b/d) on an annual basis, down from 2.1 million b/d on average during 2024. 

Data out of China this week pointed to a stuttering recovery in the second largest economy in the world, which is also the world’s largest crude importer.

In the U.S., retail sales rose by only 0.1% in the month in May, according to data released earlier Tuesday, below the 0.3% expected.

This suggested that the U.S. consumer is feeling the pinch of high interest rates, impacting discretionary spending and potentially economic activity.

Traders were also looking out for further clues on interest rates, and how U.S. demand will develop, as several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak later on Tuesday.