A dip in gold prices is a buying opportunity - UBS

The World Gold Council (WGC) released its long-awaited Q1 2024 Demand Trends report, which aligned with views that central banks have sustained their gold purchasing spree despite rising prices.

Furthermore, the report showed that demand for gold bars and coins remains strong and pointed out a significant increase in open interest on both the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the Shanghai Gold Exchange in mid-April.

“Overall, total demand is up 3% y/y to 1,238 metric tonnes (mt), despite 114mt of outflows from total ETFs, predominately from Europe and the US. The reverse has been true for some Asian ETFs, which saw modest buying,” UBS strategists said in a report discussing the figures.

They also highlighted that central banks purchased approximately 290 metric tons of gold in the first quarter, surpassing both IMF reports and expectations of 220 metric tons per quarter for 2024, indicating the potential for a third consecutive year of buying over 1,000 metric tons.

Meanwhile, jewelry demand remained robust, and industrial demand saw a 10% year-over-year increase. Gold supply from mining and recycling also rose by 4% and 12% year-over-year, respectively.

Within this, UBS strategists maintained their forecast that gold prices could reach $2,500 per ounce by the end of 2024 or early 2025.

However, they acknowledge that current price setbacks pose short-term risks, which could be exacerbated if robust US economic data leads to further delays in expected Federal Reserve rate cuts.

“That said, pullbacks are frequent and have been relatively short lived. So, we see opportunities to use structured strategies to "buy the dip" around USD 2,250/ oz or below,” said strategists.