Dollar falls as data points to economic slowdown; sterling weak

Investing.com - The U.S. dollar fell in early European trade Friday after weak data fuelled fears of a sharp slowdown in the world's largest economy, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to aggressively loosen monetary policy.  

At 04:00 ET (09:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 103.997, continuing to fall after dropping 1.7% in July, its weakest monthly performance this year.

Dollar weaker on recession fears

Overnight, data showed U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest pace in eight months in July, while a gauge for employment fell sharply, raising the potential for a U.S. recession.

It also indicates risks to the key payrolls report due later in the session are to the downside.

Economists are expecting the U.S. economy to have created 177,000 jobs in July, moderating from 206,000 in the prior month.

The unemployment rate, which has ticked higher in each of the past three months, is expected to hold steady at 4.1%.

“We are bearish on the dollar today because a) evidence from employment components of the ISM and NFIB surveys suggest the risks are skewed to a weaker payroll print, and b) once the equity turmoil and safe-haven demand abate, the macro drivers should drag the USD lower,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“The July jobs report will tell the Federal Reserve how much risks are getting skewed to the employment side of their mandate.”

Sterling falls in wake of BOE cut

In Europe, GBP/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.2734, after falling as low as 1.2708 earlier for the first time since July 3 in the wake of the Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates on Thursday.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey led a 5-4 decision to reduce rates by a quarter-point to 5%, and said the central bank would move cautiously going forward, implying a steady pace of reductions.

EUR/USD rose 0.3% to 1.0820, bouncing after reaching a three-week low of 1.0777 overnight.

Data released on Thursday showed the eurozone manufacturing sector activity remained in contraction territory in July, suggesting the European Central Bank will have to cut interest rates again this year to boost a slowing economy.

“The eurozone calendar is empty today, and we are entering a seasonally quiet period not just for data but also for ECB speakers. Given how poor eurozone activity indicators have been of late, it is probably a good thing for the euro,” said ING.

Yen continues to surge 

In Asia, USD/JPY fell 0.3% to 148.84, with the yen continuing to surge after the BOJ hiked interest rates by 15 basis points and flagged more potential hikes in 2024, citing some improving trends in the Japanese economy. 

USD/CNY fell 0.5% to 7.2071, with the yuan slipping as weak PMI data fueled increased concerns over an economic slowdown.