Global gas prices could fall 50% on “resilient supply” - Citi

Investing.com - Global gas prices could fall as much as 50% year-on-year as weak demand and resilient supply force European and Asian markets for the fuel to experience the sort of downside already present in U.S. natural gas, analyst at Citigroup (NYSE:C) said in a note issued Wednesday.

“Supply is resilient:  global  oil  and  U.S.  natural  gas  production  is  still  climbing  while remaining flat for global LNG,” Citi’s analysts said, referring to liquefied natural gas. 

“While oil prices could be range-bound between $72 and $90/bbl  even  with  the  latest  Saudi  production  cut,  global  natural  gas  and  coal  prices  have  more  downside,” they added. 

The Citi note said its base case for the third quarter was gas on the U.S. Henry Hub averaging $2.20 per million metric British thermal units; $3.80 on Dutch exchange TTF and $4.80 for the JKM marker for Japan and Korea.

“For  TTF  and  JKM,  that  would  be  ~50%  below  current  forwards,” said Citi, projecting levels for the two that could match Henry Hub prices, which are already down nearly 50% on the year.