Gold heads for 2nd weekly gain as bets hold for Fed rate pause

Investing.com -- Gold was headed for a second straight weekly gain on Thursday, posting its third rise in four days, amid bets the Federal Reserve will pause its rate hike cycle for the first time in 18 months.

The front-month gold contract on New York’s Comex settled at $1,978.60 an ounce, up $20.20, or 1%, on the day. For the week, it was up 0.5%, the same as the previous week.

The spot price of gold, which reflects physical trades in bullion and is more closely followed than futures by some traders, was at $1,965.76 by 16:30 ET (20:30 GMT), up $25.75, or 1.3% on the day. For the week, spot gold was up nearly 1%, adding to the previous week’s near flat close.

Bets for a Fed rate pause grew Thursday despite higher weekly unemployment claims among Americans.

According to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, there was a 73.7% chance that the central bank will stand down from a rate hike when its policy-makers sit on June 14.

To fight inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates by 500 basis points, or 5%, over the past 16 months, bringing them to a peak of 525 basis points, or 5.25%.

Ed Moya, analyst at online trading platform ONDA, said gold’s choppiness in recent weeks was due to a lack of conviction over the economy that hadn’t helped tip the market’s balance either way.

Gold traders now had their eyes on the next inflation reading due Tuesday from the U.S. Consumer Price Index report for May, Moya said.

The CPI hit 40-year highs in June 2022, expanding at an annual rate of 9.1%. Since then, it has slowed, growing at just 4.9% per annum in April, for its slowest expansion since October 2021. The Fed’s favorite price indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, Index, meanwhile, grew by 4.4% in April. Both the CPI and PCE are, however, still expanding at more than twice the Fed’s 2% per annum target for inflation.

The CPI reading “may ultimately determine whether gold breaks higher once more with potential record high ambitions or continues to correct lower” Moya added.

Technically, gold could be poised for highs of $1,990 and beyond even if it heads back towards mid-$1,900 levels, said Sunil Kumar Dixit, chief strategist at SKCharting.com.

“Any pull back towards the support areas of $1,955-$1,945 is likely to witness the presence of buyers, as an extension of the bullish upward move is likely to take the metal higher towards $1,975 and $1,990 in the near term,” said Dixit.