Gold Sinks Under $1,650, Then Rebounds as Risk Trade Hammers Dollar

By Barani Krishnan

Investing.com -- Gold broke below key $1,650 support on Thursday before bulls in the space lucked out, as the dollar’s tumble on talk of peak-inflation in the U.S. helped the yellow metal recoup virtually all that it lost on the day.

Gold’s benchmark futures contract on New York’s Comex, December, settled down just 50 cents at $1,677 an ounce, after falling almost $29 earlier to a two-week low of $1,648.40.

The spot price of bullion, which is more closely followed than futures by some traders, steadied at $1,665.88 by 15:30 ET (19:30 GMT), after a midday tumble to $1,642.49 — which also marked its lowest in two weeks.

The dollar tanked after latest inflation data from the Labor Department suggesting the Fed was still far behind in its fight against price pressures.

A core (non-food-and-energy-based) reading for the US Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September, above economists’ estimates for a 0.4% growth and unchanged from August, Labor Department data showed.

The Fed has struggled to contain inflation for more than a year now, with the headline annual CPI rate remaining not too far from a 40-year peak of 9.1% in June.

The central bank raised interest rates by 300 basis points since March to curb runaway price pressures and is likely to add another 125 basis points before the year-end. Economists expect further hikes in 2023, making any talk of “peak-inflation” irrelevant for now.

“Policymakers have made clear that it will take more than just one number to sway them but investors have never been ones to wait that long,” OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said, questioning any premature risk-on rally in markets expecting a Fed pullback in rates.

The Dollar Index, which pits the greenback against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc, fell for the first time in seven days, after hitting a two-week high of 113.835. Technical charts, however, suggest the index could still hit 120 in the coming weeks to renew pressure on dollar-denominated commodities.

U.S. bond yields, benchmarked to the 10-year Treasury note, remained up as well on Thursday, favoring an eventual dollar rebound.

Charts also suggest gold will not be out of trouble until it climbs closer to $1,700.

“Bullion has to close above $1,690 and sustain there for the current downside to end,” said Sunil Kumar Dixit, chief technical strategist at SKCharting.com.