Inflation data boosted confidence, Powell says, as Fed inches toward rate cuts

Investing.com --Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Monday that recent inflation readings had boosted the Fed's confidence on bringing down inflation, suggesting the central bank is moving closer to rate cuts. 

“What increases that confidence in that is more good inflation data, and lately here we have been getting some of that,” Powell said at the Economic Club of Washington D.C.

Data last week showed that the consumer price index, a measure of inflation, fell for the first time in June, marking the dip for the first time in more than four years. The year over year measure of the core PCE price Index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, at 2.6% remains above the Fed's 2% target. 

"The data confirms the point we have been making for some time: inflation is trending lower, will likely be on the soft side in the second half of this year, and because of the fall in inflation, the Fed will be able to cut three times," Morgan Stanley said in a recent note.

The Fed chief said he doesn't expect the Fed to wait until inflation reaches the 2% target before cutting rates as waiting too long to cut rates could undermine the economic expansion, Powell said, adding that the hard landing isn't the most likely scenario. 

“The implication of that is that if you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you’ve probably waited too long, because the tightening that you’re doing, or the level of tightness that you have, is still having effects which will probably drive inflation below 2%," Powell said.

The yield on the United States 2-Year Treasury, which is sensitive to Fed monetary policy, traded lower at 4.45% recently.

About 88% of traders expect a rate cut in September, up from 73% a week earlier.