Investors see Harris winning the election, Evercore's survey shows

A survey conducted by Evercore ISI showed a shift in expectations regarding the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

The survey, which gathered responses from nearly 350 participants during a Macro&Fundamental webinar, showed that VP Kamala Harris was chosen more frequently than Donald Trump as the likely winner in November.

Harris attracted 50% of responses versus 29% for Trump. In a new answer option, 21% expect that the outcome of the election will not be clear by 11/7, two days after election day.

"Now that both conventions are completed, we think both met their goals. Unfortunately for the Republicans, the race entirely changed after their convention ended. We expect the Democrats to get a traditional post-convention bump in the polls," the analysts said.

"But then post-Labor Day we’ll start to get a sense of where this race really stands. We still think it’s a toss-up.

"While right now the momentum favors Harris, the electoral college still favors Republicans."

The survey results also indicated a mixed forecast for the future of AI infrastructure spending. A total of 34% of respondents anticipate a moderation in spending in the second half of 2025, while another 34% expect a deceleration after that period. Meanwhile, 32% predict a slowdown before the second half of 2025.

In terms of stock performance, 57% of those surveyed believe that NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) will close between $120 and $140 on August 29, following its earnings report on August 28. 

The survey also touched on broader market expectations, with 79% of investors predicting that the S&P 500 will close within a 5% range of its current level by September 30.

This is significant as September is traditionally considered the weakest and most volatile month for the stock market.