Morgan Stanley's Latest Insights: Strong Earnings Beat and Stock Performance

As earnings season unfolds, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)'s analysis reveals an impressive trend: three-quarters of the companies in their coverage universe have surpassed earnings estimates, signaling robust performance both in terms of depth and breadth. With earnings beating estimates by 6 percentage points (ppt) and a breadth of 56%, the market's response, reflected in strong share price performance post-reports, indicates that expectations have been exceeded across various sectors.

Examining the performance of companies in Morgan Stanley's coverage universe, excluding Oil PSU, reveals notable growth figures. Year-over-year (YoY) revenue, EBITDA, pre-tax profit (PBT), and net profit growth rates stand at 11%, 15%, 17%, and 22%, respectively, with beats ranging from 1ppt to 12ppt compared to analysts' expectations. However, excluding Tata Motors (NS:TAMO), YoY profit growth stands at 15%, lowering the beat to 6ppt. Margin expansion is observed in five out of nine sectors that have reported so far.

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Breadth in earnings beat and stock performance has reached its highest since September 2020, with positive trends in both sequential earnings beat ratio and relative stock performance against the Sensex. Notable sectors with strong profit growth include Autos, Public Sector Banks, and Gas Utilities, while Chemicals witness the highest decline in profits. Construction Materials, Autos, Public Sector Banks, and Telecom lead the beat against analysts' expectations, while Energy and Metals lag behind. Margin expansion is most pronounced in Utilities (led by Gas) and Consumer Discretionary, while Energy shows the highest contraction.

Analyzing the performance of Sensex and Nifty companies, Morgan Stanley finds revenue and net profit growth rates in line with or surpassing expectations. Sensex stocks report revenue, EBITDA, and net profit growth of 11%, 16%, and 22%, respectively, while Nifty companies show growth rates of 10%, 14%, and 20% YoY. Margin expansion is observed across both indices.

Looking at the broader market trends, over 50% of the reporting sample, comprising 1,055 companies, reveals revenue and net profit growth of 8% and 21% YoY, respectively, with margin expansion of 65bp. Excluding Financials, revenue and net profit growth rates are 7% and 16% YoY, respectively, with margin expansion of 49bp.

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