Natural gas down 8% on week as U.S. weather models suggest mixed trends

Investing.com -- Not so fast, gas bulls: the run to $3 pricing may have to wait a little more as U.S. weather models showed an easing of the heatwave of the past three weeks as the near-term temperature outlook suggests mixed trends.

August, the most-active natural gas contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Henry Hub fell 2.7 cents, or 1%, to settle at $2.609 per mmBtu, or metric million British thermal units. For the week, the benchmark gas futures contract lost 8%. It was the first weekly loss for gas in five weeks.

Friday’s low of $2.543 for August gas also marked its first return to mid-$2 levels in two weeks.

Last Monday, August gas peaked at $2.936, the loftiest level for a front-month gas contract on the Henry Hub since March.

This week’s tumble came after the weekly gas storage report published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, showed a higher-than-forecast build of 72 billion cubic feet, or bcf.

Industry analysts tracked by Investing.com had expected U.S. utilities to add just around 64 bcf to storage last week — little changed from the 63-bcf injection during the same week a year ago and the five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 64 bcf. In the prior week, utilities added 76 bcf to storage.

Gas prices also slumped as the heatwave that had seized Texas and the southern U.S. region over the past four weeks dissipated, curtailing air-conditioning and power burn demand. Natural gas experienced its biggest monthly rally in nearly a year in June, gaining 24%, as the cooling needs of Texans and other Southerners in the U.S. went through the roof.

While New York and other Eastern U.S. states experienced their first dalliance with 90-degree Fahrenheit temperatures this week and the Californian and West Coast summer ramped up as well, the transition wasn’t intensive or smooth enough to pick up the demand slack from the retreat in southern heat, said those tracking the weather models.

“The -2.9 bcf/d drop in power burn today was driven by multiple regions, suggesting a widespread drop in demand,” analysts at Houston-based energy markets advisory Gelber&Associates said in a note to their clients in natural gas. “This eclipsed other changes in fundamentals, including a 0.9 Bcf/d increase in ResComm and 0.45 bcf/d increase in production.”

Rescomm refers to the three major consuming segments in the natural gas market made up of power generation, industrial and residential plus commercial demand.