Netflix's content slate, password sharing crackdown set stage for positive Q2

Investing.com -- Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) is set to enter the earnings stage next week against a backdrop of high expectations, but JPMorgan believes the streaming giant may spring a few upside surprises, supported by an impressive content slate, price hikes and ongoing benefits from efforts to crackdown on password sharing.  

"We remain positive on Netflix shares heading into 2Q earnings on Thursday, 7/18, while also recognizing high expectations," JPMorgan said in Friday note and lifted its price target on the stock to $750 from $650. 

Heading into Netflix's earnings, slated for Jul. 18., the company has already guided for lower net adds for Q2 than than the 9.3M reported in 1Q. But recent industry data, suggests rising demand, JPMorgan said, citing Sensor Tower data's showing global download and daily active user trends improved in 2Q.

Analysts at JPMorgan lifted their forecast for 2Q net adds to 6.0M from 5.0M, and forecast a pick up in the second half of the year to 6.5M in 3Q and 8.5M in 4Q, taking the 2024 net adds to 30M. 

The more sanguine outlook on Netflix comes as its content slate in Q2 including its expanded sports and event content such as Jake Paul Vs Mike Tyson, Xmas Day NFL Games and Chestnut vs. Kobayashi: Unfinished Beef, "should boost engagement across NFLX’s large global subscriber base&attract more ad dollars," the analysts added.

JPMorgan left its 2024 revenue growth forecast for Netflix unchanged at 18.8%, but now sees the streaming giant's margins and free cash flows for 2024 about 1% higher at 25.2% and $6.5B. 

While that is slightly better than Netflix's guidance for 2024 of 13% to 15% revenue growth, OI margins of 25%, and FCF of $6B, these metrics, JPMorgan believes, could each "prove conservative," as strong subscriber growth, price increases, and cost discipline could drive upside surprises. 

Netflix shares have rebounded 19% from the  April lows, beating the S&P500's 11% during that period, bringing the stock within 6% of all-time highs.