Pernod Ricard's sales take a hit, but outlook remains positive

Investing.com -- Pernod Ricard (EPA:PERP) on Thursday reported a marginal decline in organic sales for the fiscal year ending June 2024. 

The company faced challenges in navigating a normalizing market following two years of exceptional post-pandemic growth.

“While we think it was a bit rose-tinted for Pernod Ricard to categorise these results as 'robust', they were in line with expectations,” said analysts at RBC Capital Markets in a note. 

Despite reporting strong overall performance in a volatile economic and geopolitical environment, organic sales decreased by 1%, with a more pronounced decline of 4% on a reported basis.

The reported decline in organic sales reflects the broader challenges faced by the spirits market as it adjusts to post-pandemic conditions. 

The company faced pressure in key markets, especially the United States and China, where organic sales dropped by 9% and 10%, respectively. 

“Commentary that 1Q is negative should not be a surprise,” said analysts at Jefferies in a note.

The U.S. market, in particular, continued to normalize following a period of elevated growth during the pandemic, while China's sales were hampered by a challenging macroeconomic environment and subdued consumer sentiment.

Across different regions, the Americas saw a 5% decline in organic sales, driven largely by the U.S. market's normalization. 

The company's portfolio in the U.S. saw retailer and distributor inventory adjustments, a trend expected to continue into the first quarter of FY25. In contrast, Canada remained stable, and Brazil and Mexico showed slight growth.

In Asia and the rest of the world, organic sales grew by 3%, with strong performances in Japan, Taiwan, and India offset by declines in China and Korea. 

India's market reported growth with organic sales up  by 6%, driven by robust consumer demand and a shift towards premium products.

Europe, excluding Russia, managed a modest 2% growth, though overall organic sales in the region declined by 5%. 

The Global Travel Retail segment also posted a 2% growth, reflecting a recovery in passenger numbers, though sales were still impacted by the slow return of Chinese travelers.

By category, Strategic International Brands saw a 3% decline in organic sales, largely due to the underperformance of Martell in China and Jameson in the U.S. and Russia. Strategic Local Brands, however, grew by 5%, bolstered by strong momentum in India's Seagram’s whiskies and Kahlúa’s growth in North America and Western Europe.

Pernod Ricard's Profit from Recurring Operations grew organically by 1.5%, although reported profits declined by 7%. This was supported by strong pricing, operational efficiencies, and disciplined cost management, leading to an expansion of the organic Gross Margin by 108 basis points. 

However, adverse foreign exchange impacts, particularly from the Turkish Lira, Argentinean Peso, U.S. Dollar, and Chinese Yuan, affected reported results.

The company’s Free Cash Flow decreased by 33% to €963 million, a reflection of lower reported profit and increased strategic investments. Net debt rose to €10,951 million, with the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio increasing to 3.1x.

Pernod Ricard remains confident in its medium-term financial outlook. The company targets organic Net Sales growth of +4% to +7% and organic Operating Margin expansion of +50bps to +60bps. 

Despite anticipating a soft first quarter of FY25 due to continued inventory adjustments in the U.S. and a weak macroeconomic context in China, Pernod Ricard expects a return to organic Net Sales growth for the fiscal year.

At 3:25 am (0725 GMT), Pernod Ricard was trading 2% higher at €131.15.