Several analysts issue UBS downgrades, citing risks from Credit Suisse merger

By Scott Kanowsky 

Investing.com -- UBS Group AG (SIX:UBSG) shares plunged on Monday in the wake of its announcement that it will merge with rival Credit Suisse Group AG (SIX:CSGN) in a government-brokered deal, with several analysts downgrading the stock due to concerns over future earnings at the Swiss banking giant.

The tie-up, worth $3.25 billion, was forged after a weekend of tense negotiations overseen by Swiss regulators concerned over the health of the Swiss banking system and potential contagion in global markets. Credit Suisse, Switzerland's second biggest lender behind UBS, had been edging closer towards the brink of collapse despite an emergency credit line provided by the Swiss National Bank (SIX:SNBN) last week.

Many analysts flagged worries over how the agreement could impact UBS, arguing that there is now heightened risk and uncertainty around the stock. UBS reported a profit of $7.6B in 2022, while Credit Suisse dropped to a loss of $7.9B.

Analysts at Oddo slashed their rating of UBS to 'underperform' from 'neutral', citing "very limited due diligence" around the deal and the impact the integration of Credit Suisse's operations will have on its growth initiatives.

KBW analysts also lowered their rating to 'underperform' from 'market perform', noting in particular the suspension of UBS' share buybacks, which they said were a key part of the investment thesis in the company. They warned as well that the Swiss government's decision to write off $17B in Credit Suisse's additional tier one debt will "unsettle" some investors.

Analysts at Vontobel, meanwhile, cut their price target for UBS to CHF 19.5 from CHF 22.5. They said the case for investing in UBS has now changed "substantially," adding that the current issues surrounding the global banking system are not yet resolved.

Separately, however, ZKB analysts upgraded their rating of UBS to 'outperform' from 'market perform'. The potential benefits for UBS from adding Credit Suisse's business, they suggested, are likely to outweigh the risks presented by the merger.