Stay neutral on natural gas or sell into rally - Citigroup

Investing.com - Stay neutral on your gas positions but if you must trade, then short, or sell, into any rally, advises Citigroup (NYSE:C) in a note which can hardly be described as positive for bullish investors in America’s favorite fuel for indoor temperature control.

Natural gas futures are down more than 50% on the year due to weak demand from weather that needs neither heating or cooling, as well as overproduction.

Inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday showed total gas stored in underground caverns in the United States at 2.063 trillion cubic feet, or tcf.

That was 33% higher from the year-ago level of 1.556 tcf and 20% above the five-year average of 1.722 tcf.

The most-active June gas contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Henry Hub was down 6.9 cents, or 3.2%, to $2.101 per mmBtu, or million metric British thermal units, after the release of Thursday’s inventory data. 

“The constructive narrative for prices over the rest of the year, based mainly on stronger YTD (year-to-date) gas demand for electricity generation, could very well be offset by other supply-demand drivers,” the Citigroup note said. “A price bounce during summer could quickly be overwhelmed by robust production, thereby taking prices right back down.”

As such, the Wall Street bank urged investors to steer clear of long positions in gas.

“In general, we suggest staying neutral or selling into major rallies until the market gets a better sense of summer weather and other fundamental developments.”

“U.S. Henry Hub prices should average $2.2/MMBtu for 2Q23 in our base case, down from $2.8/MMBtu in 1Q23. The end-Oct’23 storage could still reach 4000-Bcf
or above, particularly if a mild summer were to materialize due to an El Niño happening starting this summer.”