Trump win could challenge IRA policies, says Jefferies

A Trump victory in the 2024 US presidential election could place the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) at risk, according to an analysis by Jefferies. 

The report pointed out concerns over potential rollbacks in renewable energy support if Trump returns to office, particularly as Republicans are expected to take control of the Senate.

“The White House remains a toss-up, but a narrow Republican Senate win appears likely,” Jefferies stated. 

In this scenario, former President Trump could attempt to reverse many of the IRA’s provisions, including incentives for renewable energy projects like solar and wind. However, the analysis pointed out that the divided nature of Congress would present significant legislative challenges to such efforts. 

"A narrowly divided House could make it difficult for Trump to push through policy changes," Jefferies said. Conversely, a Harris victory would likely see the continuation, and possibly expansion, of IRA policies, though the Republican-controlled Senate would act as a check on more ambitious proposals. 

“Harris could build on the IRA’s current framework, but the Senate composition would slow or alter any major initiatives,” the report said. The lack of a detailed policy agenda from either candidate, however, leaves much of the IRA’s future uncertain.

Jefferies also highlighted the growing partisan divide over renewable energy, noting that while some red states stand to benefit from IRA provisions, opposition from Republican lawmakers remains firm. “Nuclear energy is one area where bipartisan support may be possible, but resistance to solar and wind incentives persists,” the report noted.

The outcome of the 2024 election will be crucial in determining the direction of U.S. energy policy, with potential ramifications for both domestic energy markets and international relations, particularly concerning China’s involvement in IRA subsidies.