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UBS: Earnings season off to positive start, big tech to set tone
Earnings season has begun on a positive note, with S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) set to grow 10-12%, aligning with UBS expectations.
"Roughly 60% of companies are beating sales estimates and nearly 75% are beating EPS estimates," UBS said in a note Monday, though they added that the median EPS beat of 2.5% is slightly lower than recent quarters, hinting at marginally softer earnings momentum.
Thus far, only 14% of the S&P 500 market cap has reported results. The banks and financial services led the way, with outcomes generally matching or slightly exceeding forecasts.
"Capital markets activity (equity issuance, M&A activity) and stronger trading drove revenue beats," UBS analysts said, adding that while rising deposit costs remain a pressure, they are decelerating, suggesting a better outlook for net interest income.
The bank highlights that consumer spending continues to hold up, bolstered by a strong labor market and robust household balance sheets, despite ongoing pressures on lower-income segments. Banks appear to have surplus capital but are holding off on share buybacks pending more regulatory clarity, anticipated within six months.
AI developments also provided a boost, says UBS, noting that Taiwan Semiconductor expects AI chip demand to outstrip supply until 2026, extending its previous estimate of 2025.
ASML (AS:ASML) also reported strong demand into 2025, and Blackstone (NYSE:BX) CEO Stephen Schwarzman forecasts AI-driven data center investments to reach USD 1 trillion in the US and another USD 1 trillion globally over the next five years.
UBS expects this surge to contribute to a 40% increase in US electricity demand over the next decade.
Looking ahead, over 20% of the S&P 500 market cap is set to report next week, including several major tech firms.
"This will likely set the tone for the rest of earnings season," UBS stated. Despite a recent 3% pullback from its all-time high, UBS remains optimistic, citing supportive market conditions and raising their year-end S&P 500 price target to 5,900.
For 2024 and 2025, UBS forecasts S&P 500 EPS of USD 250 (+11% growth) and USD 270 (+8% growth), respectively.
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