What happens if Biden withdraws? Strategists weigh in

In a recent note, Piper Sandler analysts delved into the implications of President Biden potentially stepping aside from the 2024 presidential race.

They highlighted that significant Democratic leaders, including Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, and Nancy Pelosi, have publicly urged Biden to withdraw, marking a coordinated effort to push him out of the race.

The analysts pointed out that Biden's inner circle has dwindled to a few close family members and long-time aides. "He is a stubborn person who thinks very highly of himself," Jefferies wrote, emphasizing Biden's historical reluctance to heed advice from those outside his immediate circle.

The Democratic National Committee's attempt to schedule a virtual nomination ahead of the convention further underscores Biden's determination to stay in the race.

Despite their criticisms of Biden's decision to run for re-election, Piper Sandler analysts acknowledged the difficulty in predicting whether he will step aside. They suggested that the current political climate has brought Biden's candidacy to the brink of a critical juncture.

"We are now one step short of the true Armageddon scenario for Biden's candidacy," they wrote, referring to the potential for a significant number of Democratic senators to publicly call for his withdrawal.

The analysts speculated on the impact of Biden's recent Covid diagnosis, suggesting it could serve as a moment for him to reflect on his campaign. They also discussed the potential outcomes if Biden were to withdraw, noting that Vice President Kamala Harris would have a better chance of securing the nomination the closer to the convention Biden exits.

However, they emphasized the unpredictability of the situation, stating, "It's really difficult to predict the outcome of the general election when we don't know who the candidate is."

Overall, the Piper Sandler note underscores the uncertainty and high stakes surrounding Biden's decision, highlighting the profound impact it could have on the Democratic Party and the upcoming election.