What will a Trump presidency look like for China's economy? ANZ weighs in

Investing.com-- Concerns over a second Donald Trump presidency have weighed on Asian markets, specifically China, on what new headwinds they could bring for the region through increased protectionist policies. 

Analysts at ANZ said that while tariff increases appeared likely if Trump did win the November elections, they would not be as severe as he had foreshadowed. 

ANZ said that Trump would be likely to rein-in more extreme policy positions, given that he also holds an agenda for boosting U.S. economic growth and equity markets. 

Tax cuts and looser regulations were likely to be positive for U.S. growth, but any more expansionary fiscal policy and checks on immigration were likely to increase inflation, ANZ said. 

China faces more tariffs in Trump presidency 

ANZ said that while a Trump presidency was likely to broaden protectionist U.S. policies to other economies, China will still remain exposed to tighter trade regulations. Such a scenario bodes poorly for the country, which is already struggling with a slowing economic recovery. 

“(China’s) current dependence on production and exports to fuel GDP-growth suggests any tariffs, even if substantially less than the 60% Trump has mentioned, will be costly,” ANZ analysts wrote in a note. 

Trump could also apply more trade pressure on China by revoking the country’s Most Favored Nation status, further cutting off the country from the U.S. economy and pressuring domestic growth.

China's blue-chip CSI300 index was nursing an over 1% loss in the past week. Trump has so far maintained a largely hawkish stance towards China, and has called for stricter policies against Beijing to offset the country's trade dominance.

Dollar likely to firm under Trump, but not overwhelmingly

ANZ expects the dollar to firm and Asian currencies to weaken under a Trump presidency, likely driven by more protectionist policies and improved economic growth.

Among Asian currencies, the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen are most likely to be impacted by stricter U.S. policies. 

A renewed trade war with China, coupled with tighter U.S. policies, could spark an “across-the-board 10% depreciation in most Asian currencies,” ANZ said, with potentially worse conditions for the Chinese yuan. 

But strength in the dollar is expected to be limited, especially given that Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, have been calling for a weaker dollar to support U.S. exports. 

But while concerns over a Trump presidency have dented Asian markets in recent weeks, it still remains unclear if such a scenario will come to pass. Trump is set to square off against presumed Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris in the 2024 race.